FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, More

Brian Giuffra | Aug 6, 2025

Xander Schauffele (left), Viktor Hovland (center) and Scottie Scheffler (right) are among the betting picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. / Scottie Scheffler: Ross Kinnaird/Getty ImagesXander Schauffele: Andrew Redington/Getty ImagesViktor Hovland: Orlando Ramirez/Getty ImagesBackground: James Gilbert/PGA TOUR via Getty Images

The PGA Tour playoffs are here and the SI Golf betting panel is ready for a strong finish to the season. It’s been five weeks since we hit an outright, during which time we had three runners-up and a third-place finisher, so it feels like we’re on the verge of a hot run.

Why not now? Why not us! 

The betting panel consists of SI golf betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided content director Cody Williams,and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

The first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs is the St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind in Memphis. Elite ball striking is critical to winning here, specifically on approach. If you need proof, just look at the last two winners: Hideki Matsuyama and Lucas Glover. 

The field gets cut to 50 players next week and the odds will shorten as well. You can’t get much shorter than Scottie Scheffler at +280 on FanDuel this week, but one of our panelists is sick of missing out and is biting despite the miniscule offering. Meanwhile, we have a prop bet with nearly 10-times longer odds. Your choice how to play it.

Let’s get to the picks, with explanations below. 

FedEx St. Jude betting picks / Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Scottie Scheffler +280 (FanDuel)

I’ve had enough of betting on golfers only for Scottie Scheffler to run away with a win. Now that he’s improved on the greens, Scheffler is at the very least going to be in contention every single week. His approach numbers at the British Open were his second best of the season and he gained over two strokes per round on the field with his putting. He’s going to start the playoffs off with a bang.

Brian Kirschner: Matt Fitzpatrick +2800 (DraftKings) 

I am a bit surprised that Fitz is going a bit under the radar this week. He has everything you could possibly want this week. Course history, excellent recent form and motivation for the end of the season. Fitz has finished no worse than T8 in his last two starts, which includes the Open Championship and a Bermuda Wyndham. Playing well in every single facet of the game, don't see how he doesn't contend this week.

John Schwarb: Xander Schauffele +1800 (DraftKings)

Schauffele said a month ago that he was in full chase mode to find his game but after a T8 at the Scottish Open and T7 at the British. I think he has found it. He was solo second a year ago here and is attractive here at a Scheffler-inflated price. 

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland +3500 (DraftKings)

Hovland has been progressively better at the St. Jude, including tying as runner-up last season. Now you have someone who, despite losing strokes at The Open, has gained 1.40 strokes per round on approach over the last 12 rounds and is starting to find some better form with the driver. He’s thrived in his career at similar courses where ball striking is in high demand and has been a Top 30 putter on fast Bermuda greens over the last 36 rounds as well. Throw in the fact that he’s fourth in proximity from 150-200 yards over the last 24 rounds, I think the Norwegian finally comes through for me.

Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley +3000 (FanDuel) 

Henley has been on fire lately, finishing inside the Top 10 in his last four starts. Now he heads to a course that suits his game. Good timing! Henley was T6 here two years ago and is a good putter on Poa greens. More importantly, his approach game has been on fire recently, which is key at TPC Southwind. I’ll be betting him a few ways this week. 

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Nick Taylor +9000 (FanDuel)

Before his missed cut at the British Open, Nick Taylor had strung together five straight starts with a T23 or better finish, including a solo fourth place finish at the Memorial Tournament in June. He has proven he can compete against the best golfers in the world and he’s an interesting option at 90-1 in a limited field event.

Brian Kirschner: Chris Kirk +10000 (FanDuel) 

I wrote up Chris Kirk last week as my longshot and he finished T5 for us. I see no reason not to go back. Kirk gained over 4 strokes on approach and around the green. Much like last week, Kirk fits this place to a tee. Accurate off the tee, elite iron player and has won many times on Bermuda before. Kirk has had some solid finishes on this course in the past too, with a T6 in 2016 and T16 in 2023. 

John Schwarb: Lucas Glover +9000 (FanDuel)

Glover was the darling of the start of the 2023 FedEx Cup playoffs, winning the Wyndham and then the St. Jude. He was as hot as the Memphis sun (and it showed) and he’s starting to heat up again with his trademark accuracy with the irons. If some of the top players are coasting their way back into form after rest from the British Open, I think Glover could be ready to hit at a great price. 

Cody Williams: Lucas Glover +9000 (FanDuel)

Over the last 24 rounds, Glover is seventh in this loaded field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 10th in SG: Approach. He’s also found his accuracy with the driver of late with some accuracy that had gone away from being a strength for a bit, and is Top 25 in proximity from 150-200 yards in this field. Now he comes back to a place he won at in 2023 and was T3 in 2022. For whatever reason, this place suits his eye, including gaining more than 0.75 strokes on the greens in those two outings. With his ball-striking form right now, 90-1 is a stellar price. 

Brian Giuffra: Daniel Berger +5000 (FanDuel) 

Berger hasn’t contended in a few months as his putter has gone wayward, but his driving and approach game are solid and that’s what counts most here. Even better, he’s headed to greens where he has success – POA! He was T3 at RBC Heritage and T2 at the Phoenix Open, courses that have Poa greens. The odds aren’t quite as juicy as I hoped with a smaller field, but I could see Berger having a strong finish given his current ball-striking form. 

First-Round Lead 

Iain MacMillan: Denny McCarthy +5500 (FanDuel)

Denny McCarthy has a solid history at TPC Southwind, including posting a top 10 finish here last year. He’s also fresh off a T11 finish at last week’s Wyndham Championship. Most importantly, McCarthy ranks fourth in the field this week in total strokes gained in the opening round at +2.22. Only Scottie Scheffler, Keegan Bradley, and Collin Morikawa rank higher.

Brian Kirschner: Harris English +4000 (DraftKings) 

I told everyone I know, including this panel, that Harris English was winning The Open. He beat everyone in the field other than the best golfer since Tiger Woods. I think he was just preparing for his Playoff win. Harris got his maiden PGA Tour win at this event back in 2013. He also has popped in the past with a 4th in 2021 when he finished one shot out of a playoff after a Sunday 72. He can pop for the FRL as he did that week and contend to win.

John Schwarb: Scottie Scheffler +1100 (DraftKings)

I never regret not taking Scheffler at atrocious odds, even when he wins. We gamblers have to put our foot down somewhere! But if you’re going to give me 11-to-1 odds on the world No. 1 leading any single round, I’ll just hold my breath and go for it. If you’ve followed me in this space all season, you know I’ll take all the help I can get with first-round leaders.

Cody Williams: Scottie Scheffler +1100 (DraftKings)

Let’s be real, there’s a good chance that Scottie Scheffler just runs away with another golf tournament. While that’s not a guarantee that he’ll be the first-round leader, I like the 11-1 price much more than +280 for the full tournament and am willing to take some risk, especially because he plays in the next-to-last group on Thursday and leads this field in PM scoring average. 

Brian Giuffra: Lucas Glover +6500 (FanDuel) 

Lucas Glover’s putting issues have been on full display recently, but he’s generally better on Poa greens and now returns to the site of his 2023 win where he gained strokes putting. Coming off a missed cut at the Wyndham Championship, I’m backing Glover to get back in form on a course where he’s had a lot of success (T3 in 2022 in addition to his win).

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Cameron Young Top 20 (+140)

I’m going to back last week’s winner to follow it up with a top 20 finish this week. He’s always been a great ball striker, but now he’s one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, including gaining a blistering +2.62 strokes per round on the greens in last week’s win. I’m surprised we’re able to get him at plus-money to finish in the top 20 this week.

Brian Kirschner: Brian Harman Top 20 +200 (DraftKings) 

I think this is a great course for Brian Harman and Top 20 at this price is an excellent value. Harman showed his value at The Open Championship with T10 finish where he gained over 10 strokes ball striking. He has two top 10s in his career here and I think that he is poised to make a push for the Ryder Cup

John Schwarb: Aaron Rai Top UK/Ireland +450 (DraftKings)

So many in this field shut it down after the Scottish/British Opens, but Rai took just one week off and then finished T5 at the Wyndham. I like him to take that form into this week and at least finish the best out of the seven men in this prop. Rai is the third choice behind Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick. 

Cody Williams: Ben Griffin to win Group C +350 (FanDuel)

For those keeping track at home, Group C consists of Griffin, Russell Henley, Sepp Straka, Corey Conners and Cameron Young. Not only has Griffin been putting his face off on Bermuda, but he’s also 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. He’s remained hot into the late summer and I like the balance of his game at Southwind. 

Brian Giuffra: Winner W/O Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele: Russell Henley +2000 (FanDuel) 

I’m taking Henley Top 10 finish for +195 at FanDuel too, but I found this market too good to pass up. Take the four of the top five favorites (outside Matt Fitzpatrick) out of the equation and I still get +2000 odds on the guy I think can win? I’ll take that. Obviously, I’m long Henley this week. The metrics tell me it's a good bet. 

Winning Score 

• Iain MacMillan -18
• Brian Kirschner: -16
• John Schwarb: -17
• Cody Williams: -16
• Brian Giuffra: -15

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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