Fever vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Semifinals Game 5

The Aces are favored in Game 5 of the WNBA Semifinals.

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson is a solid prop target on Tuesday. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Game 5 of the WNBA Semifinals between the Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces will decide which team goes to the WNBA Finals against the Phoenix Mercury later on this week, and the Aces are set as home favorites at the best betting sites. 

Las Vegas had taken a 2-1 series lead heading into Sunday’s Game 4, but the Fever continued to show their resilience this season, winning at home by seven points to force a winner-take-all Game 5.

Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell combined for 49 points in the win, and the two Fever stars have stepped up in the playoffs with Caitlin Clark and five other rotation players out of the lineup for Indiana.

During the regular season, the Aces went 17-5 at home, and they closed the regular season on a massive winning streak to earn the No. 2 seed. However, they did lose Game 1 of this series at home by double digits.

Can A’ja Wilson and company get back to the Finals? Or, will the Fever continue their Cinderella run this postseason?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Game 5 on Tuesday night. 

Fever vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Fever +8 (-110)
• Aces -8 (-110)

Moneyline

• Fever: +285
• Aces: -360

Total

• 158.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Fever vs. Aces How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 30
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Series: Tied 2-2

Fever vs. Aces Injury Reports

Fever Injury Report

• Caitlin Clark – out
• Chloe Bibby – out
• Sophie Cunningham – out
• Aari McDonald – out
• Sydney Colson – out
• Damiris Dantas – concussion protocol

Aces Injury Report

• None to report

Fever vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bets

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

• A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-110)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m betting on Wilson in an elimination game on Tuesday:

Of course I’m going to bet on the league MVP in a win-or-go-home game.

In Game 3 against the Seattle Storm in the first round, Wilson put the Aces on her back, scoring 38 of the team’s 74 points while shooting 14-for-26 from the field.

In the playoffs, Wilson is averaging 24.7 points on 20.0 shots per game, giving her a terrific floor when it comes to this market. Against Indiana, Wilson has attempted at least 18 shots in every game and 20 or more shots in three of them.

She’s also put up 16, 25, 13 and 31 points in this series. While she’s going to need to have one of her best games to clear this line, I expect Wilson to get all the shots she can handle with Las Vegas’ season on the line. 

Fever vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

This series has been an up-and-down one for the Fever, as they’re 2-2 against the spread despite being set as underdogs in every game. 

Still, I’m buying Kelsey Mitchell and company to at least cover as three-possession underdogs in Game 5. 

The Fever have been in an elimination game this season, knocking off the Atlanta Dream (on the road) in Game 3 of the first round. The Aces were in a similar spot at home against the Seattle Storm, yet they only won that game by one point.

In the playoffs, the Fever have a net rating of -0.4, but they’ve been good enough when they have covered the spread to actually beat this Aces team outright. While I have a hard time fading Las Vegas at home (it only has six losses at home, including playoffs, in 2025), I do think this game ends up closer than oddsmakers expect.

To Indiana’s credit, it has made Wilson work for her points (6-for-22 in Game 2, 6-for-20 in Game 3), so I wouldn’t be shocked if this game comes down to the final possessions on Tuesday night. 

Pick: Fever +8 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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