Fever vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship

The Lynx are favored to win back-to-back WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championships.

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier is an interesting prop target on Tuesday. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The stage is set for the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship on Tuesday night, but one key question remains:

Will Caitlin Clark play?

The Indiana Fever guard has not played since Jun 24 due to a groin injury, but she has been upgraded to questionable ahead of Tuesday night’s matchup. Still, oddsmakers aren’t super confident in the Fever beating the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Lynx, as they’ve set Indiana as 6.5-point underdogs on the road in this matchup.

No team has repeated as the Commissioner's Cup champion in its short life in the WNBA, but the Lynx have a chance to do that on Tuesday. Minnesota beat the New York Liberty in the championship game last season, although it did lose the NBA Finals to the Liberty in five games. 

Minnesota has gotten off to a roaring start in the 2025 season, winning 14 of its first 16 games while posting an impressive 8-0 record at home. Meanwhile, the Fever are just 8-8 overall this season and have played seven games without Clark in the lineup due to injuries.

If the star guard returns on Tuesday, it would certainly raise the floor for a Fever team that has one of the more potent offenses in the WNBA.

However, banking on her coming back – until there is an official announcement – can be risky for bettors.

Let’s take a look at Tuesday night’s matchup, including the latest odds, player props to bet and my prediction for the Commissioner’s Cup Championship.

Fever vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Fever +6.5 (-110)
• Lynx -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Fever: +230
• Lynx: -285

Total

• 165 (Over -110/Under -110)

Fever vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 1
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Fever record: 8-8
• Lynx record: 14-2

Fever vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Fever Injury Report

• Damiris Dantas – out
• Caitlin Clark – questionable

Lynx Injury Report

• Karlie Samuelson – out

Fever vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bets

Fever Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Aliyah Boston UNDER 3.5 Assists (-145)

This season, Boston has been a great passer for the Fever, averaging 3.6 assists per game and picking up four or more dimes in eight of her 16 games.

However, I’m fading her in a tough matchup against the Lynx tonight. Minnesota is second in the WNBA in opponent assists per game (17.6), and it ranks No. 1 in the league in defensive rating and opponent points per game.

While Boston has put together some nice passing games – especially when Clark has been out – she has failed to clear this prop in each of her last five contests. Not only that, but a potential return from Clark would undoubtedly leave less playmaking possessions for Boston in this matchup. 

Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Napheesa Collier UNDER 9.5 Rebounds (-145)

Fading another All-Star?

I know, I know it’s not a fun bet, but it's the right one in this matchup.

No team in the WNBA allows fewer opponent rebounds than the Indiana Fever (32.8 per game), and this number has been juiced a little too high for my liking for Collier on Tuesday night.

The leading MVP candidate in the W has been awesome this season, averaging 24.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 52.5 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from beyond the arc.

However, Collier has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in just five of her 13 games this season, failing to do so in five straight. She has not picked up double-digit boards since June 8 against the Dallas Wings.

Since this is such a tough matchup, I think the UNDER is the play with Collier’s rebounding line set at 9.5 on Tuesday. 

Fever vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

I believe that this is the season where we finally see a repeat champion in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup.

While the Fever are a strong opponent for the Lynx in this matchup – especially if Clark plays – Indiana has not exactly been dominant even when the star guard is in the lineup this season.

The Fever are 5-4 with Clark in the lineup and 3-4 without her, ranking fourth in the WNBA in net rating (+5.5), fourth in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating.

The Lynx, on the other hand, are No. 1 in all of those categories, posting an insanely impressive +14.0 net rating so far in 2025. 

Minnesota got off to a slow start against the spread, but it is now 9-7 overall and has not lost a game outright at home all season, The Lynx have wins by 39, 16, 14, 23 and 23 in their last five home games.

Not bad! 

I’m worried about Indiana’s defense keeping up in this game, and I think there is a chance Clark sits if she’s not feeling 100 percent. Earlier this season, she didn’t return from a quad injury until she was able to play her normal workload, playing over 31 minutes in a win over the New York Liberty. 

Plus, the star guard was marred in a shooting slump before going down, hitting just 13 of her last 37 shots from the floor.

Minnesota is the best team in the WNBA right now, and just about every advanced number backs up that claim.

With the Lynx nearly fully healthy heading into this matchup, I think they’re going to continue to roll at home. 

Pick: Lynx -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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