First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 0

Iain MacMillan, Pat Forde | Aug 20, 2025

College Football Week 0 picks / Sports Illustrated

New season, new competition, new picker, same rules: First to 40 correct college football ATS picks wins! 

As was the case last year, we’ve set up a friendly competition between Sports Illustrated Senior Writer Pat Forde and SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan to see who can come out on top in the betting market and against each other. Last year, SI Betting insider Reed Wallach won the competition.

Each contestant will make five college football against the spread picks each week and the first to 40 – in honor of our own Forde – wins!

Let’s get into Week 0, where we have three picks from each panelist because of the small slate.

Pat's Picks

Iowa State +3 (FanDuel) vs. Kansas State

Week Zero games in Ireland have had an impact on conference races before they’d really even started – Florida State revealed itself to be a massive bust last year in this game, and Nebraska’s loss to Northwestern in 2022 paved the way for Scott Frost’s firing a month later. I’m not sure anything that dire will happen in this Farmageddon showdown, but I’m taking the points with the Cyclones. The Wildcats lost outright three times as a favorite last year, and I have to see QB Avery Johnson make strides before I actually believe it.

Stanford +2.5 (BetMGM) at Hawaii

Can potentially the worst power-conference team beat a mid-to-lower-level Group of 6 team? I’m saying yes, take the points. Frank Reich is a competent coach who should get the most out of the Cardinal roster, which lost some key players to the portal. Hawaii really hasn’t been able to gain any traction so far in three years under Timmy Chang, which has been particularly surprising on offense. 

Kansas -12.5 (BetMGM) vs. Fresno State

Jalon Daniels is a sixth-year college quarterback but only 22 years old; coach Lance Leipold says Daniels is determined to have his best season yet. He’s a dual-threat talent who has battled injuries, but should benefit from the promotion of QB coach Jim Zebrowski to offensive coordinator and play caller. The Jayhawks should have a rare, rabid home atmosphere with the opening of their newly renovated stadium, and Fresno is still putting together the pieces in a transition season under first-year coach Matt Entz.

Iain’s Picks

UNLV -24.5 (Bet365) vs Idaho State 

Dan Mullen brought in a plethora of former four-star and five-star recruits through the transfer portal this offseason. They should steam roll Idaho State from the FCS based on talent alone. Look for running back Jai’Den Thomas to hit the ground running. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry with the Rebels last season. Idaho State allowed 5.8 yards per carry against FCS competition last season. UNLV will do whatever it wants on the ground in this one.

Fresno State +12.5 (BetMGM) vs. Kansas

I’m excited to see what Matt Entz can do as head coach of Fresno State this season. He dominated at North Dakota State, winning two national championships in five years, and now he’ll get a shot to win at the FBS level. E.J. Warner, in his first year as a Bulldog, will get to face a weak Kansas secondary that ranked 105th in the country last season in passing yards allowed per game (249.3). I don’t know if Fresno State can pull off the upset, but I’ll certainly take them getting 12.5 points.

Western Kentucky -10.5 (FanDuel) vs Sam Houston State 

I’m high on Western Kentucky’s new quarterback Maverick McIvor, who threw for over 3,800 yards and 30 touchdowns for Abilene Christian last season. I think he’ll end up being an exciting quarterback to watch this season, and I’m willing to bet on him and the Hilltoppers getting off to a fast start against Sam Houston State, which will need a few weeks to find its identity under new head coach Phil Longo.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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