First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 11

Iain MacMillan, Pat Forde | Nov 5, 2025

College Football Week 11 Picks / Sports Illustrated

The race to 40 correct college football against the spread picks continues in Week 11.

Pat Forde had a heartbreaking Week 10, losing both on Georgia due to Gunner Stockton taking a knee at the one-yard line to close out the game and Virginia pulling off a pick-six to cover the spread against California. As a result, Iain MacMillan took a step toward closing the gap and now the First to Forde competition sits at 27-22 heading into this week's slate of games.

Let's take a look at their top five picks for Week 11.

Pat's Week 11 Picks

James Madison -13.5 vs. Marshall (via BetMGM)

The Dukes have hit a higher gear offensively in the last couple of games while also producing turnovers defensively. They’re rolling, while Thundering Herd quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has cooled down the last two games.

Mississippi State +8.5 vs. Georgia (via DraftKings)

Anticipating a Cocktail Party hangover for Georgia, and a continued bounce from Mississippi State coming off that streak-busting win over Arkansas. The Bulldogs from Athens will still beat the Bulldogs from Starkville, but by a touchdown or less.

UNC -7.5 vs. Stanford (via BetMGM)

I’d prefer the hook wasn’t there, but I’ll still go with a steadily improving team playing at home against an opponent that has been routed in every road game and is traveling three time zones east.

Washington -11.5 vs. Wisconsin (via DraftKings)

The Badgers haven’t been closer than 14 points against a single power-conference opponent this year. Why start now? The Huskies haven’t been great on the long-travel games, but Wisconsin isn’t registering a pulse.

Alabama -9.5 vs. LSU (via FanDuel)

One team has everything to play for, the other doesn’t. The LSU defense that lapsed badly against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M is not up for the task of stopping Ty Simpson and an elite Alabama receiving corps.

Iain's Week 11 Picks

James Madison -13.5 vs. Marshall (via BetMGM)

The advanced metrics love this James Madison team, ranking the Dukes 10th in the country in adjusted EPA per play and third in net success rate. If those numbers hold true, they should have a massive advantage against a Marshall team that ranks just 94th and 77th in those two stats.

Maryland +1.5 vs. Rutgers (via FanDuel)

In a coin flip game between these two Big Ten teams, I feel obligated to back the side with the far superior defense. The Maryland defense is an underrated unit, ranking 19th in the country in adjusted opponent EPA per play and 38th in opponent success rate. By comparison, the Rutgers defense ranks 133rd and 134th in those two metrics. The Maryland offense should have no trouble moving the ball against the Scarlet Knights.

Missouri +7 vs. Texas A&M (via BetMGM)

Texas A&M's pass defense has been fantastic this season, but its run defense leaves something to be desired, which could come back to haunt them against a run-first Missouri offense. 51.69% of the offensive yards gained by the Tigers come from running the football, which is the 15th-highest rate in college football. They're also extremely effective at running the football, averaging 5.64 yards per carry and ranking 28th in the country in Rush EPA. Now, they face a Texas A&M team that ranks 90th in opponent rush success rate.

Missouri is primed to be in the mix to hand the Aggies' their first loss of the season.

Oregon -6 vs. Iowa (via Caesars)

This is a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes. Iowa's biggest strength is its stout defense, which can overwhelm most teams they face, but now they have to face an Oregon team that is just as good defensively but with a far better offense. The Ducks' defense ranks seventh in opponent adjusted EPA per play, while Iowa ranks 11th. Offensively, things aren't even closer. Oregon is 12th in the country in adjusted EPA per play, while Iowa ranks 75th. It also doesn't help matters that Iowa gets the majority of its yards from the running game, and now the Hawkeyes have to face an Oregon team that ranks 34th in opponent rush EPA while allowing just 3.5 yards per carry. I'll lay the points with the Ducks in this one.

Wake Forest +6.5 vs. Virginia (via FanDuel)

I have been waiting for the time to fade this Virginia team, and I believe this is the spot to do it. The Cavaliers aren't nearly as good as their record indicates, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted EPA per play with a net yards per play of -0.31. It's baffling that they've been able to hold on to an undefeated record in ACC play. The Demon Decons outrank them in both of those stats, coming in at 40th in adjusted EPA per play with a Net Yards per Play of +1.13.

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