First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 12

Iain MacMillan, Pat Forde | Nov 12, 2025

College Football Week 12 Picks / Sports Illustrated

There's no escaping the fact that Week 11 was a bad one for both competitors in this year's edition of First to Forde. Both Pat Forde and Iain MacMillan went 1-4 with their individual picks, meaning the gap was neither widened nor shortened in the race to 40 correct college football against the spread picks.

We move on to Week 12 as both competitors try to bounce back in a big way. Let's take a look at their picks.

Pat's Week 12 Picks

Texas Tech -23.5 vs. Central Florida (via FanDuel)

The Red Raiders have won every home game by at least 22 points, and the Knights arrive in Lubbock reeling. They’ve lost five of their last six games and are winless on the road this season.

Mississippi -12.5 vs. Florida (via Fanatics)

This is a team with every big goal there for the taking against a team that might have thrown in the towel in a 31-point loss to Kentucky last week. The Gators may have lost faith in QB D.J. Lagway, benching him after throwing three interceptions against the Wildcats. Ole Miss should come in pretty rested and healthy after a walkover against The Citadel last week.

Illinois -14.5 vs. Maryland (via BetMGM)

A 15-point loss to Rutgers may have signaled the bottom falling out on the Terrapins, who have lost five straight. Illini dual-threat quarterback Luke Altmyer could light up a vulnerable Maryland defense.

Cincinnati -6.5 vs. Arizona (via Caesars)

After a cold start to the week in Ohio, temperatures will rise, and the Bearcats will not spring a bad-weather game on the visiting Wildcats. But Cincy does have an open-date advantage over an opponent traveling a long distance and facing a 10 a.m. body-clock kickoff.

Oregon State -2.5 at Tulsa (via FanDuel)

Since upsetting Oklahoma State on Sept. 19 and ending the Mike Gundy Era, the Golden Hurricane are winless and surrendering 39 points per game. It could be a big day for Beavers running back Anthony Hankerson.

Iain's Week 12 Picks

Indiana -29.5 vs. Wisconsin (via DraftKings)

I'm not afraid to lay the massive amount of points in this Big Ten matchup. Don't let Wisconsin's Week 10 win fool you into thinking they're a competent football team. The metrics show the Badgers are one of the worst teams in the country, ranking 127th out of 136 teams in Net Adjusted EPA per Play. By comparison, Indiana comes in at fourth in that metric. This is truly a battle between one of the best and one of the worst teams that college football has to offer. I'll lay the points in what I expect to be a blowout.

Oklahoma +6.5 vs. Alabama (via FanDuel)

This is a game between an Oklahoma team that I believe is underrated and an Alabama team that is overrated. In adjusted net EPA per play, Alabama ranks ninth amongst all teams, but Oklahoma is right behind them, coming in at 11th. The Sooners are significantly ahead of the Crimson Tide in both net yards per play and net success rate. Both teams rely on the pass game to move the ball down the field, but it's Oklahoma that has been better at defending the pass. The Sooners are 16th in opponent dropback EPA, while Alabama is 25th. That will play a big role in this game, and it's enough for me to back Oklahoma with the points.

Duke -5.5 vs. Virginia (via DraftKings)

Virginia might be the worst team that's currently ranked in the top 25. They have benefited from variance going their way in late-game scenarios, but overall, the Cavaliers rank just 63rd in net adjusted EPA per play. Unranked Duke ranks 39th in that metric.

Iowa +7 vs. USC (via DraftKings)

This is a battle between an all-defense team in Iowa and an all-offense game in USC. Typically, in these types of matchups, it's the defensive team that comes out on top. If they're going to give me a touchdown worth of points with the Hawkeyes, I'm going to take it.

Baylor +8.5 vs. Utah (via Caesars)

Despite having the stronger record, Utah is not as much better than Baylor as the odds would make you think. The Utes are 26th in the country in net adjusted EPA per play, while the Bears come in at 36th. Baylor's strong offense should be able to score enough to keep this game within eight points.

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