First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 2

Iain MacMillan, Pat Forde | Sep 3, 2025

College Football Week 1 Picks / Sports Illustrated

The first full week of the college football season is in the books, which means the first full week of First to Forde is wrapped up! Iain MacMillan has taken a 4-3 lead after going 3-2 in Week 1, while Pat Forde went just 1-4, suffering a couple of tough losses on Texas and Notre Dame.

Forde and MacMillan are taking part in a season-long competition to see who can be the first to reach 40 wins, picking against the spread. Each week, they'll break down their top five picks against the spread for that week's college football slate.

It's time to jump into their picks for Week 2 action.

Pat's Week 2 Picks

Navy -21.5 vs. UAB (via FanDuel)

The Blazers gave up more than 500 yards to FCS Alabama State in their opener and trailed for much of the game before pulling it out. The Midshipmen option game is going to run UAB ragged.

Ole Miss -10.5 vs. Kentucky (via FanDuel)

The Rebels missed the playoff due to a mysterious flop against Kentucky last year. They’ll be more than ready this time to face a UK offense that still has not mastered the forward pass under yet another new transfer quarterback.

Central Michigan +22.5 vs. Pittsburgh (via Caesars)

Under new coach Matt Drinkall, who arrived from Army, the Chippewas possess the perfect offense to eat the clock, shorten the game, and keep this one closer than the spread. But they have to cover kicks, because the Panthers have two explosive return men.

Memphis -13.5 vs. Georgia State (via DraftKings)

I'm not sure why the line is this small, considering the Panthers are coming off a 56-point loss and the Tigers are coming off a 35-point win. Tigers should be able to light the scoreboard with regularity.

SMU -2.5 vs. Baylor (via Caesars)

The Bears’ defense was gouged by Auburn, and the Mustangs have the weapons to exploit them again.

Iain's Week 2 Picks

Iowa +3 vs. Iowa State (via Caesars)

I’m not going to let the Cyclones’ dominant win against South Dakota convince me that they should be 3-point favorites in this game. I still feel they got largely outplayed in Week 0, despite beating the Kansas State Wildcats. Let’s not forget that Iowa State had one of the worst run defenses in the country last season. Now, the Cyclones have to face a run-first offense that boasts plenty of talent at the running back position. I think the Hawkeyes cover this field goal spread, and they may even pull off the upset.

Ole Miss -10.5 vs. Kentucky (via FanDuel)

Kentucky ran the ball on 56.15% of its plays last season, the 39th-highest rate in the country. In Week 1, the Wildcats ran the ball on 65.15% of their plays. It’s clear they rely on the run game to move the ball down the field, but now they have to face an Ole Miss defense that allowed just 2.4 yards per carry last season, the best amongst all teams by 0.3 yards per rush. This is a nightmare stylistic matchup for the Wildcats.

Charlotte +12.5 vs. UNC (via FanDuel)

I faded Bill Belichick and Co. in Week 1 and I’m doing the same here. I firmly believe he has lost his edge as a head coach, and his style of coaching doesn’t fit the college level. Not to mention his insistence on having his son and friends working underneath him further adds to the recipe for disaster. The Tar Heels will likely win this game based on talent alone, but I’ll take the points with Charlotte.

Western Kentucky +6.5 vs. Toledo (via FanDuel)

I’m all in on Western Kentucky’s new quarterback, Maverick McIvor. Through his first two games this season, he’s completed 69.5% of passes for 706 yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Sure, his first two opponents weren’t exactly top-tier competition, but I’ve seen enough from him to trust him to cover the spread as an underdog against Toledo in Week 2.

USC -28.5 vs. Georgia Southern (via FanDuel)

The USC Trojans gained a blistering 10.3 yards per play in Week 1 against Missouri State, which is 1.3 more yards per play than any other team in the country in the opening week. Sure, it was against a horrific Missouri State team, but the Trojans now play another bad team in Georgia Southern. The Panthers allowed Fresno State to put up 42 points and gain 7.4 yards against them in Week 1. There’s no reason why USC can’t win this game in another blowout.

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