First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 5

Iain MacMillan, Pat Forde | Sep 24, 2025

College Football Week 5 Picks / Sports Illustrated

It was an average Week 4 for both Pat Forde and Iain MacMillan, both going 2-3 with their picks to keep the competition tied, now at 10-10.

The race to 40 correct spread picks for the 2025 college football season continues and they have their plays locked in for this weekend's loaded Week 5 slate. Let's take a look.

Pat's Week 5 Picks

Pittsburgh +4.5 vs. Louisville (via BetMGM)

Pat Narduzzi has a winning record against the spread as a home ‘dog, and his team is coming off an open date with extra time to heal and prepare. The Cardinals, meanwhile, haven’t played a road game or any Power Four competition to date, and they could be susceptible up front to a team that always knows how to pressure a quarterback.

Alabama +3.5 vs. Georgia (via Fanatics)

Kirby Smart’s Alabama Meltdown Syndrome needs to be addressed, and unfortunately for him, he might not have the defense to adequately do it. Gunner Stockton has played well for the Bulldogs, but Ty Simpson has been razor-sharp the last two games for the Crimson Tide. This could turn into a shootout like last year.

Ole Miss -1 vs. LSU (via Caesars)

Trinidad Chambliss has been a revelation since stepping in at QB for the Rebels, while Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t played spectacularly so far for the Tigers. More pertinently, the LSU offense has little pop in the running game, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. 

Notre Dame -4 vs. Arkansas (via DraftKings)

This could also be a shootout, with both teams possessing explosive offenses and questionable defenses. If the Razorbacks could give up 290 rushing yards to Memphis, they might give up 300-plus to the Fighting Irish running back tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.

Virginia +7 vs. Florida State (via BetMGM)

The Cavaliers are improved over recent seasons and have an especially potent offense with transfer quarterback Chandler Morris. The Seminoles are in a trap situation, playing on the road on a Friday night when their minds might be wandering ahead to the showdown with Miami next week. Expect an FSU win, but a close one.

Iain's Week 5 Picks

TCU +2.5 vs. Arizona State (via BetMGM)

I've become a big TCU guy, and I believe in this team more than the betting market does. Josh Hoover has all of a sudden entered the Heisman Trophy conversation, and their offense has the ability to put up points in bunches against most teams in the country. Now, Hoover and the TCU offense will take on an Arizona State team that has allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt his season. This looks like another good matchup for the Horned Frogs.

USC -6.5 vs. Illinois (via DraftKings)

USC is second in the country in adjusted EPA per play, and now the Trojans get to face an Illinois team that was exposed last week against Indiana. USC averages a whopping 9.1 yards per play this season, the best mark in the country, and now the Trojans will face an Illinois defense that ranks 102nd in opponent yards per play, allowing 6.1 yards per snap. The USC offense could have a field day in this one.

Oregon +3.5 vs. Penn State (via BetMGM)

The advanced metrics in this game seem to point toward this marquee matchup being close enough that we should jump at the chance to back the Oregon Ducks getting 3.5 points. The Ducks lead the country in adjusted EPA per play, while Penn State comes in at seventh in that stat. Oregon also has a net yards per play of +3.56, while Penn State sits at +1.90. That's enough for me to back the Ducks.

Arizona +6.5 (-105) vs. Iowa State (via BetMGM)

I think Arizona is an underrated team at this point in the season. The Wildcats rank fourth amongst all teams in adjusted EPA, along with a success rate of 11.2%. Meanwhile, Iowa State ranks 49th in adjusted EPA per play with a success rate of +7.4. This game is going to be closer than people think.

Baylor -20.5 vs. Oklahoma State (via BetMGM)

The firing of Mike Gundy isn't enough for me to think Oklahoma State is going to start playing significantly better football. Out of 136 teams in the country, the Cowboys rank 135th in adjusted EPA per play. They also have a net yards per play of -1.83. Baylor isn't exactly an elite team, but the Bears are competent enough to steamroll Oklahoma State in this one.

---

Use BetMGM promo code ‘SI1500’ to get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets when you register and place your first wager with BetMGM Sportsbook. Deposit at least $10, make your pick, and BetMGM will return your full stake if you lose.

In MI, NJ, PA, and WV, you can place a $10 wager and get $150 in bonus bets if you win.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.