First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 7

Iain MacMillan, Pat Forde | Oct 8, 2025

College Football Week 7 Picks / Sports Illustrated

It was just two short weeks ago when Pat Forde and Iain MacMillan were all tied up at 10-10 in the race to 40 correct college football spread picks, but both competitors have trended in opposite directions.

Forde has caught fire the past two weeks, going a combined 8-2 with his picks. MacMillan, meanwhile, has struggled to pick winners, going just 2-8 in that stretch. Now, MacMillan has to find some momentum sooner rather than later, or else this competition is going to be out of reach.

Let's take a look at their picks for college football Week 7 action.

Pat's Week 7 Picks

Missouri +3.5 vs. Alabama (via FanDuel)

This sets up well for the Tigers, who are at home and coming off an open date against a team playing its third-ranked opponent in three weeks. Mizzou running back Ahmad Hardy, the nation’s leading rusher, could have some success against a Crimson Tide run defense that is 15th in the SEC in yards allowed per carry. Key for the Tigers: Beau Pribula has committed a turnover in each of the last four games; he needs to play cleanly.

BYU 1.5 at Arizona (via FanDuel)

This is a matchup of the two best pass defenses in the Big 12, so I’m taking the team with the better running attack. BYU is averaging 234 rushing yards per game and 5.82 yards per carry.

Clemson -14 at Boston College (via BetMGM)

Same theory as last week – the Tigers are better than their record, and the opponent is very bad. Boston College is winless against FBS opponents and has given up an average of 37 points in its last four games. Clemson has actually played better on the road than at home this year, and much of last year.

USC -2.5 vs. Michigan (via Caesars)

This looks like a fairly even game, so give the edge to the veteran quarterback playing at home (Jayden Maiava) and throwing to the one true game breaker on the field (Makai Lemon). Bryce Underwood is good and getting better, but his road pass efficiency rating is 60 points lower than at home.

Old Dominion -14.5 at Marshall (via BetMGM)

The Monarchs might be the best team in the Sun Belt, with a flashy sophomore quarterback in Colton Joseph and a defense that wreaks havoc up front (41 tackles for loss). Marshall is an improving offensive team but susceptible defensively.

Iain's Week 7 Picks

Washington -10.5 vs. Rutgers (via BetMGM)

From an advanced metrics standpoint, Washington is far above Rutgers, ranking 25th in adjusted EPA compared to Rutgers at 70th. Not only that, but I expect the Huskies to be able to run all over the Scarlet Knights. Washington is fifth in the country in EPA per rush attempt, while Rutgers is 96th in opponent EPA per rush. I'll take Washington to run away with the win in this one.

Ohio State -14.5 vs. Illinois (via FanDuel)

Both Ohio State and Illinois run the ball on over 53% of their plays, but it's the Buckeyes who do a much better job of defending the run. Ohio State allows just 2.9 yards per carry, and Illinois allows 4.7 yards per rush. Ohio State also far outranks the Fighting Illini in adjusted EPA per play at +0.4 compared to +0.11.

James Madison -17.5 vs. Louisiana (via FanDuel)

James Madison runs the football at one of the highest rates in the country, with 62.19% of their plays being rushing plays. That's bad news for a Louisiana team that has allowed 5.3 yards per carry this season, which ranks 118th in the country. Not only are the Dukes the better team, but their rush attack should lead to a blowout victory in their favor.

UMass +3.5 vs. Kent State (via FanDuel)

In a game between arguably the two worst teams that college football has to offer, I'm going to back the side that's not only getting points but also has the stylistic advantage as well. UMass throws the ball on 61.32% of its plays, the seventh-highest rate in the country. Now, they get to take on a Kent State team that's 112th in opponent dropback EPA while allowing 7.87 yards per dropback. I wouldn't be surprised if the Minutemen win this game outright.

Oklahoma +1.5 vs. Texas (via DraftKings)

It might be time to accept that Texas just isn't as good as its preseason expectations. They are just 16th in the country in adjusted EPA per play while sporting a success rate of +6.0%. The advanced metrics favor the Sooners, who are fifth in adjusted EPA per play with a Success Rate of +22.4%, which is second in the country behind only Indiana.

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