First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 8

Iain MacMillan, Pat Forde | Oct 15, 2025

College Football Week 8 picks / Sports Illustrated

Try to find a hotter college football bettor right now than Pat Forde, and I don't know if you will. After three straight 4-1 weeks, it's starting to get late early for Iain MacMillan in this year's edition of First to Forde.

Just a few short weeks ago, Forde and MacMillan were tied at 10-10 in a race to their 40 correct college football picks against the spread, but the two competitors have trended in opposite directions. Forde is 12-3 over the past three weeks, while MacMillan is a lowly 4-11.

With that being said, there's plenty of football left this season. Let's take a look at their picks for college football Week 8.

Pat's Week 8 Picks

Minnesota +8.5 vs. Nebraska (via FanDuel)

Giving more than a touchdown on the road against a proven upset master is a warning sign. PJ Fleck will have his team ready to go, while Matt Rhule is answering questions (publicly and privately) about Penn State.

Memphis -21.5 at UAB (via DraftKings)

The Tigers have been a consistent cover monster this season, and the Dragons are in transition after firing Trent Dilfer. There is potential concern about UAB suddenly finding life after a coaching change, but that’s a bad team playing a good team.

South Carolina +5.5 vs. Oklahoma (via DraftKings)

The Gamecocks are at home. Shane Beamer is an upset master. The Sooners are coming off a major rivalry game against Texas. John Mateer might still not be ready for a starring role. Add it all up, and it’s time to get Cocky in Columbia.

UNLV +12.5 vs. Boise State (via FanDuel)

The Rebels aren’t great, but they are undefeated. And that implies a competitiveness that will not submit to a first loss willingly. This will be closer than the spread, and perhaps single digits.

Iowa -2.5 vs. Penn State (via FanDuel)

Assuming the Nittany Lions are in the tank, and Kirk Ferentz rarely fields a team that is the tank, and the Hawkeyers are at home … going with Iowa to cover the small spread.

Iain's Week 8 Picks

Nebraska -7.5 at Minnesota (via DraftKings)

Minnesota is pass-first offense with 57.14% of its plays being pass plays. That's disastrous news for them in Week 8 when the Golden Gophers take on a Nebraska team that allows just 4.6 yards per pass attempt, which is the best mark in the country. The more advanced metrics, has the Cornhuskers at 15th in the country in opponent EPA per dropback. Teams can run on this Nebraska teams, but run-first teams like Minnesota are going to struggle.

Vanderbilt -2.5 vs. LSU (via Caesars)

Vanderbilt continues to be an underrated team. The Commodores are 18th in the country in adjusted EPA per play with a success rate of +11.3% and a Net Yards per Play of +2.52. The underlying numbers for LSU have not been as impressive, ranking 41st in adjusted EPA with a success rate of +7.3% and a Net Yards per Play of +0.84.

Georgia -7.5 vs. Ole Miss (via DraftKings)

Both teams rank inside the top 30 in the country in rush play percentage, but it's Georgia that has been the far better team at stopping the run. The Bulldogs rank 16th in opponent yards per carry, allowing just 3.1 yards per rush. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has allowed 4.8 yards per carry, which ranks 105th in the country.

Memphis -21.5 at UAB (via DraftKings)

San Jose State is the only team that throws the ball more than UAB. 64.66% of UAB's plays are passing plays, and now the Blazers take on a Memphis team that allows just 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 32nd in the country. If the Blazers can't succeed throwing the ball, they're going to get steamrolled by Memphis. The Tigers are eighth in the country in adjusted EPA per play while UAB ranks just 106th.

USC +9.5 at Notre Dame (via BetMGM)

The advanced metrics continue to love this USC team. The Trojans rank first in the entire country in adjusted EPA per play along with ninth in Success Rate. Despite that, they're 9.5-point underdogs against a Notre Dame team that ranks 25th and 46th in those two metrics. I'll jump at the chance to take the Trojans at +9.5.

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