First to Forde: Picks Against the Spread for Every Conference Championship Game

Reed Wallach, Pat Forde | Dec 6, 2024

Best picks against the spread for every Conference Championship Game. / Quinn Ewers: Alex Slitz/Getty ImagesCarson Beck: Todd Kirkland/Getty ImagesAbdul Carter: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesDillon Gabriel: Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images

After a thrilling race to 40 winners against the spread, Reed Wallach pulled out the win with a blazing 40/70 hit rate, beating out Pat Forde, who put up a respectable 36/70 as both sets of picks were profitable on the season.

Now, we have expanded our picks to include the postseason with one pick for each Conference Championship Game. Who will hoist hardware this weekend and which teams will cash in for sports bettors against the spread?

We have you covered with our picks for each game below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

AAC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Pat: Army +6

There are two things going for the Black Knights here, in addition to simply being a good team. One, the expected game-time temperature in West Point, N.Y., is in the 20s – that won’t be comfortable for the boys from New Orleans.

Two, and more importantly, Green Wave coach Jon Sumrall is the hottest name in the coaching carousel and is being pursued by several schools (North Carolina perhaps most prominently). You wonder whether that played any part in Tulane’s upset home loss to Memphis last week. Coaches can say they are focused on the task at hand, but when jobs are being weighed that often isn’t true.

Go with the focused team on the frozen tundra in the Hudson Valley.

Reed: Tulane -6

Army has been a great story all season long, but the team has benefited from a soft schedule throughout.

The only team that Army has faced that is inside the top 50 nationally in EPA/Play is Notre Dame, who blasted the troops 49-14.

Meanwhile, Tulane has proven to be an elite Group of Five team but had its College Football Playoff bubble burst against Memphis last week, costing the Green Wave a chance at hosting the AAC title game.

However, head coach Jon Sumrall has dominated triple option teams dating back to his time at Troy, when he shut down Jeff Monken’s team the past two seasons by a combined score of 29-9. Further, Tulane beat Navy on the road 35-0.

I’ll lay it with the favorite.

Conference USA Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Pat: Western Kentucky +5.

Reed: Western Kentucky +5

These two teams played last weekend with Western Kentucky clinching its spot in the Conference USA title game with a late 53-yard field goal.

While neither team is inspiring the utmost confidence at the moment with its current play, I’ll side with the underdog Hilltoppers in what I expect to be a higher scoring game than last week’s 19-17 affair.

It’s worth noting that Jacksonville State starting quarterback Tyler Huff suffered an ankle injury in the game last week, but this line indicates he’s in.

What draws me to Western Kentucky as an underdog of more than a field goal is that the difference between these teams appears to be small. Jacksonville State’s fast-paced run game has the edge against a shaky Western Kentucky rush defense, but the pass-happy Hilltoppers should have answers against the Gamecocks' leaky secondary.

Both teams should score and I expect a close finish in the CUSA title game, I’ll take the points.

Mountain West Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Pat: Boise State -4

Reed: Boise State -4

While Boise State has been far from its best down the stretch, I do believe some of that can be attributed to the quality of opponents the team has been facing, closing the season by facing one bowl team after beating UNLV on the road more than a month ago.

When the Broncos beat UNLV by five on the road, the team closed as a four-and-a-half point favorite, and with the setting switching to the ‘Smurf Turf’ I believe that the home team is being overlooked in this matchup.

UNLV’s defense has shown some cracks in the armor of late, allowing a handful of explosive plays to lowly opponents that can be there for not just running back Ashton Jeanty, but a talented pass catching group as well.

Boise beat UNLV in Las Vegas in the Mountain West title game, and while I’m sure the Rebels would like revenge, I believe the price is overrating how close these two teams are.

Big 12 Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Pat: Arizona State -2.5

The Sun Devils have ridden battering ram running back Cam Skattebo this far, and he can take them a little farther – into the playoff. Iowa State’s ahead-of-the-curve defensive philosophy was built around stopping wide-open spread attacks, and this is a straight-forward frontal assault. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has given ASU enough balance to make them progressively harder to stop as the season has gone along as well. Kenny Dillingham’s star rises even higher.

Reed: Arizona State -2.5

MAC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Pat: Miami (Ohio) -2.5

Reed: Miami (Ohio) -2.5

For the RedHawks, the team is trying to become the first team in more than a decade to go back-to-back in the MAC, and I believe the team has proven to be the class of the MAC and will cover as small favorites against the surprising entrant to the title game, Ohio.

The RedHawks disposed of the Bobcats in the first meeting in Oxford, 30-20 as the team’s elite defense shut down Parker Navarro and the team’s passing game as head coach Tim Albin benched the quarterback in the second half.

Ohio is based around its sturdy run game, top 20 in yards per carry, and while Navarro is timely with his passes, this is still a unit outside the top 90 in EPA/Pass. This was apparent in the first meeting as Miami limited Ohio to 280 total yards.

Further, the sturdy Bobcats defense struggled to make much progress against the RedHawks offense, failing to register a tackle for loss and allowing Brett Gabbert to pick apart the Ohio secondary.

With the emergence of Keyon Mozee in the run game, who ran for 113 yards in the win against Ohio, I like Miami to win its second straight MAC title.

SEC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Pat: Georgia +2.5

So you’re telling me I can have the team that dominated this matchup in Austin, playing in its backyard of Atlanta, AND get points? Yeah, I’ll take the Bulldogs. Georgia shredded the Texas offensive line in the first meeting, and star Longhorn lineman Kelvin Banks is questionable for this game after missing most of the Texas win at Texas A&M last week with an ankle injury. Georgia has been a wildly inconsistent team this season, but I’ll ride with them in this environment.

Reed: Texas -2.5

While Georgia was able to suffocate the Texas offense in the first meeting in Austin, I do believe that the Longhorns are equipped to handle the Bulldogs in the second meeting and win the SEC Championship in its first season.

For starters, Texas may be onto something on offense, deploying more run-first schemes with backup Arch Manning stepping in for the hobbled Ewers. Georgia has consistently struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season, allowing more than 100 yards on the ground to the likes of Jalen Milroe and Hyanes King as well as struggling to contain Jaxson Dart.

While Manning may only be used rarely, this facet of the game may be the most effective one for the Longhorns as it tries to keep Georgia off balance.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs offense continues to fall behind in games as the passing game lacks a game breaking talent.

In the first meeting, Georgia got ahead due to its ability to get pressure on Ewers and lean on its ground game in a run-heavy game script, but that has been far from the norm for Georgia this season, who has had to comeback in a majority of its games in SEC play.

Further, Georgia may be without Trevor Etienne for this one, the team’s top running back. In the game against Texas, Etienne ran for 87 yards on 19 carries with three touchdowns. Overall, Georgia has had a middling run game all season, ranking 79th in yards per carry and 106th in explosive rush rate. Without its top RB, I believe the Bulldogs are going to be behind the sticks early and often.

Look for Texas to get out to an early lead in this one behind a sound script from Steve Sarkisian and eventually win the SEC Championship in its first season as the team is well positioned to pounce on a potentially gassed Georgia team following a grueling eight overtime game.

Sun Belt Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Pat: Louisiana -5.5

This is another game where a cloudy coaching tenure may be taking away from one team’s ability to focus. Thundering Herd coach Charles Huff’s contract is expiring and might not be renewed, despite getting Marshall into this championship game. Going on the road here to play an explosive Louisiana team that has committed the fewest turnovers in the league (eight) seems like a recipe for a solid Ragin’ Cajuns victory.

Reed: Marshall +5.5

ACC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Pat: SMU -2.5

The Mustangs are ready for their moment. Their defense is underrated, and the offense has been humming under quarterback Kevin Jennings (8-0 as the starter). Clemson is dependent upon Phil Mafah as a centerpiece rushing threat, and he hasn’t gotten going in the last few games. That will be even harder to do against the ACC’s best run defense.

Reed: SMU -2.5

Big Ten Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Pat: Oregon -3.5

Penn State might have the two best players in this game in defensive end Abdul Carter and tight end Tyler Warren, but Oregon has the better team. And after the Ducks were disrespected in all-Big Ten voting with just three first-team players, a lot of those guys will arrive in Indy with something to prove. Penn State hasn’t faced a quarterback who can stress a defense like Dillon Gabriel, who should have a big day if his line can block Carter.

Reed: Oregon -3.5