Florida vs. Houston Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for NCAA Tournament National Championship

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the national title game between the Florida Gators and Houston Cougars.

Florida is a one-point favorite in the national title game. / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Two wild Final Four matchups have produced a meeting between the No. 1 Florida Gators and No. 1 Houston Cougars.

Florida, led by superstar guard Walter Clayton Jr., knocked off Auburn behind a huge second half. The Gators have been a dominant offense all season, and after winning the toughest conference in college basketball – the SEC – they’re aiming to win the entire thing on Monday.

Meanwhile, Houston went on a crazy run in the final minute to upset Duke, capitalizing on missed free throws and turnovers to erase a six-point deficit in the final 32 seconds. 

Can the Cougars, who have the best defense in the country, bring the momentum from that matchup in Monday’s contest.

Oddsmakers have set the Gators as one-point favorites, a sign that we should be in for a closely-contested matchup. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for this national title matchup. 

Florida vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Florida -1 (-108)
• Houston +1 (-112)

Moneyline

• Florida: -115
• Houston: -105

Total

• 141.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Florida vs. Houston How to Watch

• Date: Monday, April 7
• Time: 8:50 p.m. EST
• Venue: Alamodome (San Antonio)
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Florida record: 35-4
• Houston record: 35-4

Florida vs. Houston Best College Basketball Prop Bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Florida Best Prop Bet

• Walter Clayton Jr. OVER 19.5 Points (-114)

The Florida star has scored 23 or more points in four of his five NCAA Tournament games this season, including a 34-point showing against Auburn in the Final Four. Clayton hasn’t needed to take a ton of shots (he’s attempted more than just 14 shots once), and he’s been insanely efficient in the tournament, shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 48.7 percent from 3.

Even against a tough Houston defense, it’s hard not to trust Clayton at this number. His points prop was up at 22.5 in the Auburn matchup. 

Houston Best Prop Bet

• J'Wan Roberts OVER 6.5 Rebounds (+104)

The Houston big man has 12 rebounds in two of his last three NCAA Tournament games, and he is averaging 6.5 boards per game for the season.

Roberts could have a big role against a Florida team that likes to play two bigs and allowed nine offensive rebounds to Auburn in the Final Four. Roberts thrived against the size of Duke in the Final Four, picking up 12 boards (four on the offensive glass) for the Cougars. 

Florida vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

This game is truly a clash of styles.

The Gators are the No. 3 team in the country in points per game while Houston allows the fewest points per game in the country.

The Cougars’ defense came up huge in the win over Duke in the Final Four, but is that sustainable against such an elite offense?

Houston does two things really well on offense. It’s the No. 1 team in 3-point percentage (although it is 125th in makes), and it’s 40th in the country in offensive rebounds per game. Will the Cougars be able to crash the glass against the bigs of Florida (Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh)?

That’s where I think the game will be decided for the Cougars. They aren’t nearly as good offensively as Florida, but they can make up for it with extra possessions.

On the Florida side, this game is all about the guard play. Yes, Houston has a star in LJ Cryer, but Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard are three experienced guards that all can create their own shot. 

Clayton has been insanely clutch in this tournament, hitting big shot after big shot. Florida also is the No. 3 team in the country in rebounds per game. If the Gators keep the Cougars off the glass, I think they have too big of an advantage offensively with Clayton and company. 

I’ll back the Gators – my pre-tournament pick – to cut down the nets on Monday night.   

Pick: Florida Moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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