Florida vs. LSU Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 3

LSU is favored at home in Week 3.

The LSU Tigers and quarterback Garrett Nussmeier are favored in Week 3. / SCOTT CLAUSE / USATODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Florida Gators lost their first real test of the 2025 college football season, falling to the South Florida Bulls in Week 2.

Now, the Gators hit the road for a brutal matchup against No. 3 LSU and potential No. 1 overall pick Garrett Nussmeier.

The Tigers picked up a huge win in Week 1 against then-No. 4 Clemson, and they followed that up with a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech. While LSU didn’t blow out a subpar opponent, it has been extremely impressive defensively, allowing just 1.9 yards per carry while allowing 17 points in two games.

Now, with the Tigers favored in Week 3, they’ll need their defense to hold up again to cover against a Florida team looking to get back in the top-25.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this SEC battle on Saturday night. 

Florida vs. LSU Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Florida +8.5 (-110)
• LSU -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Florida: +250
• LSU: -310

Total

• 48.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Florida vs. LSU How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 13
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ESt
• Venue: Tiger Stadium (LA)
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Florida record: 1-1
• LSU record: 2-0

Florida vs. LSU Key Player to Watch

Garrett Nussmeier, Quarterback, LSU

Nussmeier has a real chance to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he’s gotten off to a strong start in the 2025 season, throwing for 469 yards and a pair of scores for the Tigers. Nussmeier leads the SEC in completions and pass attempts while leading the Tigers to over 360 yards of total offense per game.

Florida has been solid defensively to open the 2025 season, allowing just 238.5 yards per game, but can it slow down Nussmeier? Both Aaron Anderson and Barion Brown should be able to find their way open for the LSU quarterback in Week 3. 

Florida vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

This total is way too high for my liking in Week 3 given how these offenses have fared early on in the 2025 season.

While Nussmeier has played well, the Tigers have only scored 40 points in two games – and that includes a game against an extremely inferior Louisiana Tech squad.

On the other side, Florida scored just 16 points in a loss to USF and had to settle for multiple field goals early on in that game. DJ Lagway’s numbers are a little inflated from a 55-0 win over LIU.

Now, on the defensive side of the ball, both of these teams have thrived. LSU has allowed just 17 points in 2025 while the Gators have given up just 18.

The Tigers have completely shut down the run (allowing 1.9 yards per carry as I mentioned earlier) and are giving up just 207.5 yards of total offense per game, and that’s after facing a Heisman candidate in Cade Klubnik.

Florida is allowing just 238.5 yards per game, holding opponents to less than three yards per carry in 2025. 

I expect this game to be a bit of a slugfest until one of these offenses shows us that it's better than it played in the first two weeks. 

Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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