Genesis Invitational Picks, Props and Predictions: Can Collin Morikawa Break Two-Year Drought?

SI Golf staff | Feb 12, 2025

Shane Lowry (left), Collin Morikawa (center) and Rory Mcilroy (right) are among the picks to win the Genesis. / Collin Morikawa: Andrew Redington/Getty ImagesRory Mcilroy: Brennan Asplen/Getty ImagesShane Lowry: Andrew Redington/Getty Images

The PGA Tour heads back to Torrey Pines for the second time in three weeks for the Genesis Invitational and the SI Golf betting panel is focused on some big-name players with great course history to claim the title. 

That plus a 200-1 darkhorse pick. 

Our panel includes SI golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, FanSided senior editor and golf bettor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra.

We didn’t get off to the hot start we wanted, but we won’t shy away from transparency. MacMillan is +1 unit after his +400 prop bet came through at the Phoenix Open and Giuffra is -2.17 units after his hole-in-one prop came in . The other four panelists are -4 units, but we all know golf betting is a long-term play. This is where the comeback starts. 

Let’s jump into our Genesis picks, an event moved from Riviera to Torrey, which hosted the Farmers a few weeks ago, because of the wildfires in California. Below are our outright, longshot, first-round leader, and prop picks.

Genesis Open picks. / Sports Illustrated

Outright Pick 

Iain MacMillan: Taylor Pendrith (40-1, DraftKings)

Taylor Pendrith has finished outside the top 25 just once in his last 11 starts, posting some of the most consistent finishes on the PGA Tour. Now he heads back to Torrey Pines where he’s posted a T9 and T7 finish in his last two starts, including at the Farmers Insurance Open just a few weeks ago.

Matt Vincenzi: Collin Morikawa (14-1, DraftKings)

Morikawa is perfectly suited to contend at Torrey Pines. He ranks fifth in strokes-gained total on the course, fifth in strokes-gained total in very difficult conditions and seventh in strokes-gained total on very long courses. It’s been a few years since he’s won, but I think this is a great opportunity for Collin to get a win. 

John Schwarb: Shane Lowry (45-1, FanDuel)

Lowry missed the cut at the Farmers but came back with a runner-up at Pebble, and an iffy forecast for the first two rounds in San Diego makes me like him even more. Also, Europeans have won three of the last four events on Tour and that’s a juicy little storyline to see continue.

Brian Kirschner: Will Zalatoris (45-1, DraftKings) 

People were lining up to bet Will Zalatoris three weeks ago at this very course at 20/1, so I am happy to jump on at 45/1 this week. Willy Z has phenomenal course history here with a solo runner-up, seventh and 13th in just five appearances. I am not worried about his performance at Pebble as it is not a course he has got on well at historically. I see him having a comeback year and it will start here at Torrey. 

Cody Williams: Rory McIlroy (7-1, FanDuel)

Rory has four starts at Torrey Pines since 2019, three at the Farmers and one at the U.S. Open. He’s finished Top 7 in three of them, including the major. Off the win at Pebble and with the gnarly rough, I think McIlroy’s raw power will be crucial and give him a major advantage, especially as his approach play and course management looked quite promising early in the year. 

Brian Giuffra: Colin Morikawa (14-1, DraftKings)

With a nasty weather forecast for the first few days at Torrey Pines, driving accuracy and long iron play will be key this week. Well, Morikawa is second on Tour in driving accuracy (77.6% fairways hit) and is among the top players in long-range and mid-range approaches. He also has a solid history at Torrey, finishing fourth in the U.S. Open in 2021 and third at the Farmers in 2023. Morikawa hasn’t won since 2023, but his ball striking has been sublime to start this season and it feels only a matter of time before he breaks through. 

Longshot Pick 

Iain MacMillan: Patrick Rodgers (200-1, FanDuel)

You want a longshot? I’ll give you a longshot. Patrick Rodgers at 200-1 could be an interesting look. He has the driving distance to compete at Torrey Pines and would’ve finished much better at this course three weeks ago had he not lost 2.42 strokes on the greens. He has three Top 10 finishes at Torrey throughout his career.

Matt Vincenzi: Adam Scott (90-1, FanDuel)

Adam Scott is hitting the ball brilliantly and loves playing at Torrey Pines. He ranks fourth in strokes-gained per round at Torrey Pines in the field and has gained more than 3.9 strokes putting at the course in each of his last three trips. The Australian has won seven times since 2013, and those winning scores have been -9 (The Masters), -11 (The Barclays), -9 (Colonial), -9 (Honda Classic), -12 (WGC Cadillac), -13 (Australian PGA Championship) and -11 (Genesis Invitational). This winning score should be right in his wheelhouse.

John Schwarb: Daniel Berger (90-1, FanDuel)

Great to see Berger back and he’s gaining form; if Detry doesn’t run away on Sunday in Scottsdale maybe Berger gets that W. He was seventh at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey and he’ll be up to the challenge of another tough week.

Brian Kirschner: Wyndham Clark (80-1, BetMGM) 

I am taking a swing on a major champion and two-time winner in the state of California at those long odds. Clark has left much to be desired this season but rebounded well at WMPO where he finished 16th and gained strokes on approach, around the green and putting. I simply think these odds are too long for the caliber of player he has proven to be. 

Cody Williams: Gary Woodland (120-1, FanDuel)

Woodland hasn’t finished worse than T22 in three starts this season and has gained more than 5.4 strokes tee-to-green in two of those three. While his history at Torrey Pines is mediocre at best, he’s in form with his ball striking and a good putting week — he’s gained strokes marginally the past two weeks — could vault him into contention.

Brian Giuffra: Sam Stevens (80-1, FanDuel) 

Stevens placed second at the Farmers this year and his worst round was at the North Course. He shot 73 there but was under par in his three rounds at the tougher South Course, where this event is exclusively being played. He also finished T13 at the Farmers in 2023 thanks to an opening-round 66 at the South Course. Sometimes courses fit players, and this one seems to fit Stevens. 

First-Round Leader Pick

Iain MacMillan: Collin Morikawa (22-1, FanDuel)

Dating back to last season, Collin Morikawa has had his best stuff in the first round and then regressed as events get into the later rounds. He has gained +2.56 strokes on the field in Round 1, over one stroke better than any other round.

Matt Vincenzi: Akshay Bhatia (80-1, FanDuel)

Akshay is one of the most underrated drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour. He is extremely accurate off the tee and that will be a major advantage in the difficult conditions this week at Torrey Pines. The 23-year-old loves putting on POA and is comfortable playing in the region he grew up in. 

John Schwarb: Collin Morikawa (22-1, FanDuel)

I’m not ready to take Morikawa for an outright win but the Californian should jump out fast at a course where he’s had success. 

Brian Kirschner: Maverick McNealy (40-1, DraftKings) 

This California native has continued to play some great golf since he got his first PGA Tour victory in November of last year. Coming off a T9 finish at the WM Phoenix Open, I can see Maverick starting hot this week. Maverick has only missed one cut in seven appearances here and, although I have my doubts about him winning, I can see him leading after round 1. 

Cody Williams: Justin Thomas (25-1, FanDuel)

Though it’s a small sample size, JT is third on the PGA Tour in the early season in first-round scoring average. He’s dialed on approach to start the 2025 campaign and has gained putting in three of four events. At Torrey, where he’s been Top 25 in four of his five starts, I think he gets out to a hot start this week.

Brian Giuffra: Justin Rose (65-1, FanDuel) 

We know Rose performs well in nasty weather and with rain forecasted for the first round I want a player with a history in these conditions. Rose is also known for his fast starts, including this year when he shot 65 to open at Pebble Beach en route to a T3 finish. In his career at Torrey Pines, he’s among the best in the field in total shots gained. He fired an 80 at the South Course in the Farmers this year, which could scare some off. But I’m banking on a bounceback in conditions he likes at a course he knows well. 

Favorite Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Jake Knapp Top 30 (+240, DraftKings)

Jake Knapp’s driving distance should make him a great fit for Torrey Pines but it’s the direction his approach game has been going that gives me hope he can post a solid finish this week. In his last four weeks, his strokes gained: approach has gone from -1.74, -0.06, +0.62, to +1.12. If his irons take another step forward he should be set up for a solid week.

Matt Vincenzi: Adam Scott Top 20 (+190, DraftKings)

For all of the reasons outlined in the “longshot” section, I am enamored with Adam Scott this week. I truly believe he contends. Whether or not he has what it takes at this stage of his career to go toe-to-toe with a Scheffler or McIlroy remains to be seen, but I believe at top 20 should be in play. 

John Schwarb: Harris English Top 20 (+200, FanDuel)

This week offers a unique handicap with a second Tour event at Torrey in a month—why not take a piece of the guy who won the first go-round? English didn’t play the WMPO so he’s rested and ready.

Brian Kirschner: Wyndham Clark over Corey Conners (-120, Bet365) 

Taking a chance on this three-time PGA Tour winner who has already won twice in the state of California. I personally think that distance is going to be a big edge this week and Clark has that in spades. Conners is off a bad run of form since the Sentry and I think it continues.

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland Top 20 (+125, BetMGM)

Admittedly, I simply can’t pass up my guy, Viktor Hovland, at plus odds for a Top 20 in a limited field for a signature event. He had a T2 at Torrey Pines for the Farmers in 2021 and gained 4.7+ strokes ball-striking at Pebble a couple of weeks ago. The short game probably keeps him out of contention but he seems to be rounding into enough form to believe a Top 20 is more than possible at a spot that suits his game.

Brian Giuffra: Sungjae Im Top 20 (+110, DraftKings)

I considered betting Im Top 10 at +280 at DraftKings (he’s +220 on FD), but with prop bets, I try and limit risk as a way to mitigate losses on the outright market. Im’s record at Torrey is outstanding, with Top 10 finishes in three of the last four Farmers, including a T4 this year. He’s incredibly accurate off the tee and he’s among the best putters on tour. That should bode well in an event I project to have a higher final score. 

Final Score Prediction

• Iain MacMillan: -7
• Matt Vincenzi:-10
• John Schwarb: -6
• Brian Kirschner: -12
• Cody Williams: -11
• Brian Giuffra: -8

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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