Genesis Scottish Open Score Predictions: How Top Golfers Will Fare at Renaissance Club

Attempting to predict the final score for the top 10 golfers at this week's Scottish Open.
Xander Schauffele has a chance to win the Genesis Scottish Open for the second time in his career.
Xander Schauffele has a chance to win the Genesis Scottish Open for the second time in his career. / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The top golfers on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour will tee it up in Scotland for the final event before next week's British Open.

The last two winners of the event, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy, also happen to be the top two betting favorites to win this week.

I've already broken down my top bets to win at the Renaissance Club in my full betting preview here, but in this article I'm going to take it one step further and attempt to predict the winning score as well as the final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list.

All odds listed in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Genesis Scottish Open score predictions

Winning score: -16

Predicting the winning score at any event in the U.K. is tough due to how big of a role the weather plays. You can find evidence of that by looking at the wide array of winning scores at the Renaissance Club. Schauffele won here in 2022 with a score of 7 under par while Bernd Wiesberger won it in a playoff in 2019 at 22 under par.

With the forecast not calling for a ton of wind this week, I'm going to predict the winning score to be one shot lower than it was when McIlroy won here in 2023. With that being said, I could end up being way off if the wind picks up on the weekend.

Rory McIlroy (+800) score prediction: -10

McIlroy is the most fascinating golfer this week. He's the defending champion and was in peak form before allowing the U.S. Open to slip through his grasp a few short weeks ago. After that, he withdrew from the Travelers Championship meaning this will be the first time we'll see him in action since the heartbreaking loss.

McIlroy may need this event to help get shake off another major loss. I expect him to have a solid performance, but won't be truly in contention on Sunday. The time to bet on him may be next week at the Open Championship.

Xander Schauffele (+900) score prediction: -13

Xander Schauffele has been statistically the second best golfer on the PGA Tour this season next to Scottie Scheffler and now he returns to an event he won in 2022. Despite winning the PGA Championship, the question surrounding his ability to close out tournaments on the back nine on a Sunday still lingers.

He'll post yet another top-10 finish, but I don't think he ends up winning this event for the second time in three years.

Ludvig Aberg (+1600) score prediction: -11

It's going to be interesting to see how Ludvig Aberg fares playing links golf the next two weeks. He won the Omega European Masters back in September and has skyrocketed up the world rankings since then. Can he keep his momentum going back in Europe? I expect a solid finish, but I need to see him step up on a Sunday before I'll take him to win a big event.

It's worth noting he missed the cut here last season.

Collin Morikawa (+1600) score prediction: -15

Collin Morikawa is looking like he's back to his former self, like when he won the 2021 Open Championship. He has finished inside the the top 20 in six straight starts and should be in a good position to compete this weekend. With that being said, he hasn't been able to convert 54-hole leads into wins so far in 2024, which gives me concern when it comes to him closing things out on Sunday.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) score prediction: -10

Tommy Fleetwood has had plenty of success on links courses in Europe, including the Scottish Open. He has finished inside the top six in three of the last four years including a runner-up finish in 2020. Is he in good enough form to truly compete this week? I'm not so sure.

Viktor Hovland (+2200) score prediction: Missed Cut

I'm out on Viktor Hovland until he proves me wrong. He has been unimpressive all season and he doesn't have a good finish at the Scottish Open in his career either, missing the cut here in 2022 and finishing 25th last year. I'm afraid another missed cut at this event could be in his future.

Tom Kim (+2500) score prediction: -6

Tom Kim's history at the Scottish Open, which includes a solo third place finish in 2022 and a T6 finish here last year, is impressive. With that being said, I don't trust his form heading into this week. He missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, losing over a stroke per round with his approach game. He'll make the cut, but won't be in the mix on the weekend.

Min Woo Lee (+2800) score prediction: -16

If you read my betting preview, you'd know that Min Woo Lee is my best bet to win this week. He won the 2021 Scottish Open and seems to be peaking at the perfect time, finishing T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He thrives when playing links golf and I think he has a great chance to win this event for the second time in his career.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3500) score prediction: Missed Cut

Matt Fitzpatrick missed the cut at the Scottish Open last year and don't be surprised if he misses it again in 2024. He has finished inside the top 35 just once in his last five starts, including a T36 finish at the Travelers Championship where he lost -0.6 true strokes per round with his approach game.

I'd recommend staying far away from betting on Fitzy this week.

Hideki Matsuyama (+3500) score prediction: -5

Hideki Matsuyama missed the cut in 2022, the only year he's teed it up at the Scottish Open.

This season, he's had a bit of an up-and-down campaign, missing plenty of events due to injury and while he has a win at the Genesis Invitational, he is coming into this week off a T23 performance at the Travelers Championship where he lost strokes with his approach play for just the fourth time in 2024.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Iain MacMillan


Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.