Giants vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Aug. 21

Sean Treppedi | Aug 21, 2025

Dylan Cease draws a favorable matchup for whiffs against the Giants on Thursday. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The Padres trounced San Francisco to an 8-1 victory, stretching their win streak over the Giants to two while further cementing their grip on second place in the NL West. 

San Diego’s offense clicked from the start, with Manny Machado continuing his steady production and the bullpen slamming the door. 

The Giants have lost eight of their last 10 and continue to sputter offensively, scoring just two total runs across the last two games. With the season series firmly tilted in the Padres’ favor, Wednesday’s finale feels like another chance for San Diego to flex its pitching depth at Petco Park.

San Francisco hands the ball to Justin Verlander (1-9, 4.23 ERA) in the series finale. Despite overall regression, he has pitched better than his record suggests, owning a 3.03 ERA over his last seven starts and fresh off a vintage outing against the Rays. 

San Diego counters with Dylan Cease (5-11, 4.61 ERA), who has a 3.60 ERA at home and an impressive 2.77 mark in day games.

Giants vs. Padres Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Giants -1.5 (-140)
• Padres +1.5 (+116)

Moneyline

• Giants (+158)
• Padres (-188)

Total

• Over 7.5 (-118)
• Under 7.5 (-104)

Giants vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, August 21, 2025
• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCS BA, Padres TV Network
• Giants Record: 61-66
• Padres Record: 71-56

Giants vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Giants: Justin Verlander (1-9, 4.23 ERA)
• Padres: Dylan Cease (5-11, 4.61 ERA)

Giants vs. Padres Prop Bet

Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-168 at FanDuel) 

It feels expensive, but the Giants rank in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate against right-handers, and Cease is running a career-best 15.5% swinging strike rate while averaging over 97 mph on the fastball. He already fanned seven Giants when he faced them earlier this season in San Francisco, and Petco Park tends to reward power arms with an extra gear. Even if Cease gives up some traffic due to walks or a couple of hits, his ability to generate whiffs should hold steady.

Giants vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

The Giants’ offense has vanished this summer: it ranks 22nd in MLB in wRC+ (94) and even worse this month with a 90 wRC+ per FanGraphs. San Francisco has managed just one run in each of the last two games, and with Petco Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions, the task only grows tougher against Cease’s strikeout-heavy arsenal.

On the other side, the Padres draw Verlander, who, despite a poor overall record, is still missing bats and limiting hard contact — especially in recent weeks. With both bullpens ranking among the league’s best in FIP, and recent head-to-head trends showing seven of the last 10 meetings staying under, a low-scoring grind seems fair.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

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