Grizzlies vs. Thunder Playoff Odds: Series Prediction, Odds, Analysis and Best Bet

The Thunder are -1800 favorites to advance to the second round.

The Thunder are massive favorites in the first round of the playoffs. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

All season long, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best team in the NBA, winning 68 games en route to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

Now, OKC has its first-round playoff opponent – the Memphis Grizzlies – set ahead of Sunday afternoon’s Game 1.

Memphis, which finished in the No. 8 spot during the regular season, lost the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game in the play-in tournament against the Golden State Warriors before it beat Dallas on Friday to secure the final playoff spot in the West.

Game 1 will be a quick turnaround for the Grizzlies, and there has to be some concern with star Ja Morant, who is nursing an ankle injury, and just how ready he’ll be for Sunday’s contest. Morant did play against Dallas on Friday, but he needed an injection in his ankle to help him do so. 

Oddsmakers are expecting the Thunder to take this series pretty easily, and it’s worth noting that OKC has won nine consecutive regular-season meetings between these teams, including all four in the 2024-25 campaign.

Plus, all of those wins came by double-digits this season. The Thunder, who finished with the No. 1 net and defensive rating in the NBA during the regular season, are favored by double-digits in Game 1.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the series odds, trends to watch and my series prediction for the Thunder-Grizzlies matchup.  

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Grizzlies vs. Thunder Series Odds

• Memphis: +900
• Oklahoma City: -1800 

Grizzlies vs. Thunder Series Correct Score Odds

• Thunder in 4: +165
• Thunder in 5: +195
• Thunder in 6: +500
• Thunder in 7: +550
• Grizzlies in 7: +2200
• Grizzlies in 6: +2200
• Grizzlies in 5: +5000
• Grizzlies in 4: +7000

Grizzlies vs. Thunder Trends to Watch

Memphis Grizzlies

There are a lot of concerning trends with this Memphis team, which fell from the No. 2 seed in the West all the way to the No. 8 spot.

Memphis struggled after the All-Star break, ranking No. 17 in the league in net rating, No. 18 in defensive rating while posting a 12-16 record. The Grizzlies are also just 14-26 against teams that are above .500 this season (counting the play-in loss to Golden State). 

It gets even worse. Memphis hasn’t beaten a Western Conference team that was over .500 since late January, and it only has two wins over teams that are over .500 since an early February win over the Milwaukee Bucks. 

On a positive side, Memphis does push the tempo – No. 1 in the league in pace – which could help it score against this stout Thunder defense. When it comes to game-to-game trends, the Grizzlies are pretty solid against the spread on the road, going 22-19-1.

The biggest game-to-game trend to watch is with the total, as the OVER is 26-16 in Memphis’ road games and 25-15-1 in OKC’s home games. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

What more can we say about the Thunder other than that they put together a historic season?

OKC led the league in net rating and defensive rating for basically the whole season, and it finished third in the NBA in scoring defense. 

The Thunder also are going to be interesting to watch with both of their bigs – Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein – healthy. This season, OKC is 16-4 when both big men are in action. 

As for game-to-game trends (outside of the total trend mentioned earlier), OKC was the No. 2 team against the spread as a home favorite this season, going 27-12-2.

Grizzlies vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

This series is going to be a breeze for OKC, as Memphis is banged up with Morant at less than 100 percent and Jaylen Wells and Brandon Clarke done for the season.

The Thunder dominated this matchup during the regular season for a reason – Memphis’ half-court offense is too shaky to rely on. Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and others can all be thrown at Morant to slow him down, and OKC has by far the best player in this series in SGA.

All season long, the Thunder have dominated at home, and they also have been far and away the best defensive rated team in the league. 

While the Grizzlies may be able to steal a game on their home floor, I can’t imagine this series getting past OKC for a second time. The Thunder have too much firepower in their rotation, and the quick turnaround for Game 1 (less than 48 hours) will likely put Memphis in a hole right away.

OKC takes this matchup in five – at the most. 

Pick: Thunder to win the series, Thunder in 5 (+195 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.