Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 4

The Yankees are favored at home with Clarke Schmidt on the mound.

The Yankees are favored at home with Clarke Schmidt on the mound. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees pulled off a 3-2 win in their series opener against the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday night behind a dazzling performance from starter Carlos Rodon, and they’ll aim to keep the momentum going from that win on Wednesday.

The Yankees have won two games in a row, opening up a 6.5-game lead in the AL East standings. Cleveland, on the other hand, fell to third in the AL Central with Tuesday’s loss.

The Guardians are looking to bounce back on Wednesday with Luis L. Ortiz (4.40 ERA) on the bump against Clarke Schmidt (3.95 ERA).

Schmidt pitched much better in May, lowering his ERA by nearly a full run across five starts. Can he stay hot at home in the second game of this three-game set? 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Wednesday’s contest.  

Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Guardians +1.5 (-130)
• Yankees -1.5 (+110)

Moneyline

• Guardians: +160
• Yankees: -192

Total

• 9 (Over -102/Under -118)

Guardians vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Cleveland: Luis Ortiz (2-6, 4.40 ERA)
• New York: Clarke Schmidt (2-2, 3.95 ERA)

Guardians vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 4
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Amazon Prime Video
• Guardians record: 32-27
• Yankees record: 37-22

Guardians vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+190)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why this is a favorable matchup for Yankees superstar Aaron Judge:

Yankees superstar Aaron Judge has 21 homers on the season, and while he’s not priced very favorably in this market, I do like the matchup he has on Wednesday night.

Judge and the Yankees take on the Cleveland Guardians and righty Luis L. Ortiz, who has struggled against Judge in limiting at bats. Judge is hitting .400 (2-for-5) with a triple against Ortiz. He’s also worked four walks against him. 

The Guardians starter may attempt to pitch around Judge, but the Yankees slugger has been too dominant this season – he’s hitting .387 – to pass up against a pitcher he’s fared well against in his career. 

Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

The Yankees failed to cover the run line in the series opener, but there is a glaring difference between these two starters on Wednesday, so I’m going to back New York to win big.

Let’s start with Schmidt, who posted a 3.14 ERA across five starts in May. He’s led the Yankees to a 5-3 record in his outings in 2025, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his eight outings, including six straight.

According to Statcast, Schmidt ranks in the 79th percentile in expected ERA (3.07), the 82nd percentile in expected batting average against, and the 84th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Despite an average ERA, Schmidt’s underlying numbers show that he isn’t allowing a lot of hard contact in 2025. 

As for Ortiz, things are much different. Cleveland is just 4-8 in his 12 outings, and his 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP may not even be as bad as they should be. Statcast has Ortiz in just the 17th percentile in expected ERA (4.97) and the 25th percentile in expected batting average against. 

He’s in the first percentile in average exit velocity against and the fifth percentile in hard-hit percentage. Essentially, this is the opposite profile to Schmidt’s so far in 2025.

Against a Yankees offense that is second in OPS, third in runs scored, and first in Weighted Runs Created Plus, Ortiz should struggle.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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