Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 5

The Yankees are massive favorites at home on Thursday.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried is a solid prop target on Thursday. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The final game of the ALCS rematch between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees takes place on Thursday night, as lefty Max Fried gets the ball for New York.

Fried has a 1.92 ERA this season, so it’s not surprising that the Yankees are massive favorites at home in this contest.

Slade Cecconi gets the ball for Cleveland – his fourth start of the season – and he’s led the Guardians to a 2-1 record in three games despite posting an ERA over 5.00.

Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction on June 5. 

Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Guardians +1.5 (+110)
• Yankees -1.5 (-130)

Moneyline

• Guardians: +225
• Yankees: -278

Total

• 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Guardians vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Cleveland: Slade Cecconi (1-1, 5.28 ERA)
• New York: Max Fried (7-1, 1.92 ERA)

Guardians vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 5
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network
• Guardians record: 33-27
• Yankees record: 37-23

Guardians vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Max Fried UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-170)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB prop picks why Fried is in a prime spot to bounce back from his rough outing in his last appearance: 

Yankees ace Max Fried has been terrific this season – even though he did struggle in his last outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Fried has 1.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in the 2025 season, allowing just 57 hits in 75.0 innings of work. So, I’m a little shocked to see Fried’s hits allowed prop all the way up at 5.5 on Thursday evening.

So far this season, Fried has eight outings where he’s given up five or fewer hits, and he had been on an eight-game streak of hitting the UNDER on 5.5 hits allowed until his last two outings. 

I think this is a prime bounce-back spot for Fried, as the Guardians are just 20th in MLB in batting average against left-handed pitchers. Cleveland is also just 23rd overall in MLB batting average, so bettors should see some positive regression from Fried after he struggled against an elite Los Angeles Dodgers offense. 

Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

I’m not reading too much into Fried’s struggles late in his last outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he’s been downright dominant in the 2025 season.

Fried has a 1.92 ERA and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 12 starts. That’s helped the Yankees go 10-2 in his outings, winning eight of those 10 games by two or more runs.

So, I don’t mind taking a shot on the Yankees to cover the run line in this matchup. 

Cecconi has struggled in the 2025 season, allowing 17 hits in 15.1 innings of work. He’s posted a 5.28 ERA and 6.07 FIP, allowing at least three runs in two of his three outings.

The Yankees are one of the best offenses in MLB, ranking second in the league in OPS, while the Guardians are a bottom-10 offense in terms of batting average against lefties.

I think the Yanks close out this series with a win at home with Fried on the mound. 

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-130 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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