Heat vs. Hawks Best NBA Prop Bets (Predictions for Zaccharie Risacher, Trae Young, Heat Guard)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Miami Heat-Atlanta Hawks matchup in the NBA's play-in tournament.

Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher is a solid prop target on Friday. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

For the fifth time this season, the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will face off, this time with the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference on the line.

We have a ton of data from matchups between these teams, which should help us bet in the prop market tonight. I’m eying a pair of guards, including Hawks star Trae Young, as well as one rookie to make up my favorite plays for this clash between division rivals.

Here’s a full breakdown of each prop play to consider for this No. 10 vs. No. 8 matchup in the play-in tournament. 

Best NBA Prop Bets for Heat vs. Hawks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Davion Mitchell OVER 16.5 Points and Assists (-115)
• Trae Young UNDER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)
• Zaccharie Risacher OVER 11.5 Points (-115)

Davion Mitchell OVER 16.5 Points and Assists (-115)

A midseason acquisition, Heat guard Davion Mitchell has come up huge for the Heat as of late, putting up 17 or more points and assists in six of his last eight games, including a 15-point, nine-assist showing on Wednesday against Chicago. 

Now, Mitchell isn’t going to take a ton of shots for the Heat, but since March 17, he’s averaging over 32 minutes per game to go with 12.1 points and 6.3 assists per night. An elite defender, Mitchell may be tasked with guarding Young for a good portion of this game, which should mean he’s on the floor quite a bit.

In his two matchups with Miami against Atlanta, Mitchell dropped 20 points and six assists in a start where he played over 37 minutes and 16 points and six assists in over 35 minutes off the bench. 

He’s a terrific target at this number, especially after playing such a crucial role in Miami’s first play-in win. 

Trae Young UNDER 40.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Young could be a player to fade on Friday night:  

Hawks star Trae Young put together a big game – before getting tossed – against Orlando, but he has struggled against Miami in his career.

This season, Young fell short of this line in three of the four games that he played against the Heat, averaging 17.0 points, 12.3 assists and 2.0 rebounds per game. For his career, Young is averaging 21.3 points, 9.3 assists and 3.1 rebounds in 23 games against Miami.

So, it’s not normal for him to be hovering around 40.5 points, rebounds and assists against this Erik Spoelstra defense.

The Heat shut down the Bulls in their first play-in tournament game, and they finished the regular season ninth in the league in defensive rating. Even though Miami struggled record wise, the defense has always been a calling card for this group.

Young is going to see all types of coverages in this one, as the Hawks really lack a proven No. 2 option with Jalen Johnson done for the season. I don’t see him putting together a big enough game to clear this line, especially if the Heat can slow the pace like they did on Wednesday against the Bulls. 

Zaccharie Risacher OVER 11.5 Points (-115)

Hawks rookie Zaccharie Risacher averaged 12.6 points per game during the regular season, but he really took a step forward after the trade deadline when Atlanta moved Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter.

In 31 games after the deadline, Risacher averaged 14.5 points per game while shooting 50.9 percent from the field and 41.1 percent from 3. He took 11.0 shots per game, and had some high-scoring showings (a 38-point game on April 10) as well.

In the play-in against Orlando, the rookie struggled a bit, finishing with just seven points on 2-of-10 shooting from the field. However, he played nearly 30 minutes and still had a pretty big role on offense. 

If he continues to push double-digit shot attempts, he’s worth a look in this market on Friday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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