Houston vs. Duke Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Final Four

Duke is favored in the Final Four against Houston.

Duke is favored in the Final Four against Houston. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Duke Blue Devils and Houston Cougars could not be more different teams – in terms of their makeup – but they’ll meet in the Final Four on Saturday.

Duke is led by freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, and it has multiple other freshmen who should be lottery picks in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Meanwhile, the Cougars are a veteran team led by guard LJ Cryer that really buckles down on the defensive end, holding Tennessee to just 50 points in the Elite 8.

These teams cruised to the Final Four – Houston won by 19 and Duke won by 20 – so this should be a fun matchup in San Antonio. This is also a rematch of last season’s Sweet 16 when Duke upset the Cougars with a 55-51 win.

Here’s a breakdown of this game, including the latest odds, players to watch and my prediction for this Final Four matchup.  

Houston vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Houston +4.5 (-105)
• Duke -4.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Houston: +170
• Duke: -205

Total

• 136.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Houston vs. Duke How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, April 5
• Time: 8:49 p.m. EST
• Venue: Alamodome (San Antonio)
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Houston record: 34-4
• Duke record: 35-3

Houston vs. Duke Key Players to Watch

Houston

LJ Cryer: The veteran guard had a down game in the Sweet 16, scoring just five points, but he bounced back in a big way in the Elite 8, leading Houston with 17 points, seven rebounds and four assists. Cryer has at least three dimes in every NCAA Tournament game despite averaging just 2.0 per game for the season. He should be the driving force of Houston’s attack on Saturday. 

Duke

Cooper Flagg: The presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Flagg was just 6-for-16 from the field in the Elite 8, but he still stuffed the stat sheet. He finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, three assists and a block. Flagg is averaging 19.5 points and nearly eight boards per game in the NCAA Tournament. 

Houston vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

This matchup features two elite defensive teams, as the Cougars are No. 1 in the country in opponent points per game, but I lean with the Blue Devils to reach the final.

When at their peak, Duke is the best team in the country on both ends of the floor, ranking ninth in points per game, seventh in opponent points per game, sixth in field goal percentage and fourth in opponent field goal percentage.

Houston can match things on the defensive end – third in opponent field goal percentage – but it is outside the top 130 in the country in points per game.

On top of that, the Cougars (No. 1 in 3-point percentage) don’t knock down as many 3s per game as the Blue Devils, something that could hold them back – even though they’re very efficient from deep. 

Duke has more top-end talent – led by Flagg – and I value that over the experience of the Cougars. Plus, Duke has a veteran guard in Tyrese Proctor who has been in these spots before, including last season’s upset of the Cougars.

I’ll take the points with Duke, as I think offensively it will eventually overwhelm Houston. 

Pick: Duke -4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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