Illinois State vs. Villanova Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for FCS Semifinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Illinois State-Villanova matchup in the FCS semifinals.

Illinois State Redbirds quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Illinois State Redbirds have come out of nowhere to reach the FCS Semifinals, and they’ll look to punch a ticket to the final when they take on No. 12 Villanova on Saturday night.

The Wildcats have knocked off No. 4 Tarleton State, No.5 Lehigh and Harvard over the last three games to make the semifinals, and they are now 12-2 overall this season. Illinois State had a signature one-point win over No. 1 North Dakota State in the second round, and it’s now 11-4 in the 2025 season.

Illinois State had lost to North Dakota State earlier in the season, and it lost to a College Football Playoff team in Oklahoma back in Week 1. 

Villanova’s losses don’t look as good, as it dropped a game to then-No. 2 Penn State – 52-6 – earlier in the season before losing to Monmouth right after. The Wildcats have won 11 games in a row since then, including one possession wins in the second round and quarterfinals of this tournament. 

Oddsmakers have the Wildcats set as small home favorites in this matchup, but can they advance to the championship game? 

Here’s a look at the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for this FCS semifinal clash. 

Illinois State vs. Villanova Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• Illinois State +2.5 (-115)
• Villanova -2.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Illinois State: +106
• Villanova: -130

Total

• 53.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Illinois State vs. Villanova How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 20
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Villanova Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Illinois State record: 11-4
• Villanova record: 12-2

Illinois State vs. Villanova Key Player to Watch

Pat McQuaide, Quarterback, Villanova

McQuaide has led Villanova through a bit of a gauntlet in the FCS tournament, knocking off Harvard 52-7 before beating No. 5 Lehigh and No. 4 Tarleton State.

The Villanova quarterback only has two touchdown passes over his last two games, but he’s done a great job taking care of the football all season long, which has been huge for the Wildcats. 

McQuaide has thrown for 2,893 yards, 23 scores and just three picks this season while completing 60.3 percent of his passes. Illinois State ranks 103rd in FCS in passing yards allowed per game, so this is a pretty favorable matchup for the Villanova passing offense. 

After throwing a late score to beat Tarleton State, McQuaide will aim to follow that up with another big game in the semifinals. 

Illinois State vs. Villanova Prediction and Pick

Despite being unseeded, Illinois State has knocked off some impressive opponents in the last three games, including No. 16 Southeastern Louisiana, No. 1 North Dakota State and No. 8 UC Davis.

Now, Villanova enters as a tough test, but likely not the hardest game that the Redbirds have played in this tournament.

While Villanova has a great record – and a long win streak – it has not won by margin at times this season. In fact, the Wildcats have six wins by one possession this season, including each of their last two games in this tournament.

That sets up well for Illinois State, which is rolling at the moment, scoring 92 points over the last three games.

The Redbirds’ defense has been a bit shaky, especially against the pass, but I’m not sold on Villanova hanging a huge number on them to win by margin. This game could come down to a final possession, so I don’t mind having the 2.5 points on Saturday.

Pick: Illinois State +2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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