Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Conference USA Championship Final

Iain MacMillan | Mar 14, 2025

Liberty is favored against Jacksonville State in the C-USA tournament final on Saturday. / HELEN COMER/The Daily News Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Liberty and Jacksonville State entered the Conference-USA tournament as the top two seeds, and now they'll face each other in the championship game with a berth in the NCAA Tournament on the line.

Both teams just barely squeaked by their respective opponents in the semifinals, each winning by just two points. With that now behind them, the two teams will face each other for the third time this season. They split their regular season series, with each team winning their game at home.

Everything's on the line in Saturday's rubber match. Let's take a look at the odds and my best bet.

Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Jacksonville State +6.5 (-110)
• Liberty -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Jacksonville State +220
• Liberty -275

Total

• OVER 130.5 (-115)
• UNDER 130.5 (-105)

Jacksonville State vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 15
• Game Time: 8:30 PM EST
• Venue: Propst Arena
• How to Watch (TV): CBSSN
• Jacksonville State Record: 22-11 (12-6 Conference)
• Liberty Record: 2706 (13-5 Conference)

Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Key Players to Watch

Jacksonville State

Jaron Pierre Jr.: The key to beating Jacksonville State is finding a way to slow down Jaron Pierre Jr. He's third in the nation in points per game, averaging 21.7. He scores an average of 11.3 more points per game than anyone on the team, so Liberty's sole priority should be shutting him down.

Liberty

Kaden Methany: The Liberty guard has played a big role in Liberty's success so far in the tournament, combining for 40 points, six rebounds, and five assists in their two tournament games so far. He's also been hitting his three-pointers at a higher-than-50% rate.

Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

If the metrics are any indication, this could be a one-sided affair in favor of Liberty. Not only are the Flames the best shooting team in the conference, but they're one of the best shooting teams in the country. They enter the tournament final ranking third in effective field goal percentage at 57.8%. Jacksonville ranks 251st at 49.5%, a whole 8.3% lower.

If you think the Flames are just an offensive juggernaut that can't play defense, think again. Liberty is 15th in college basketball in defensive efficiency, meanwhile, Jacksonville State ranks 146th.

I have no problem laying the points with the Flames in the C-USA final, and if they win, they could be an interesting upset pick in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Pick: Liberty -6.5 (-110) via BetMGM

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