Jalen Hurts vs Dak Prescott ATS Betting Record Gives Cowboys Surprise Edge

Brian Giuffra | Sep 4, 2025

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (right) has a glowing ATS record as a big underdog. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

We’ve already seen the spread and moneyline for tonight’s Eagles-Cowboys game move toward Philly, and explained why that happened. 

Now we’re going to throw a wrench into that info with some surprising against the spread betting trends for the two starting quarterbacks. 

The Eagles are currently 8.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook over the Cowboys after the initial line was set at 7.5. The Cowboys' moneyline also moved from +310 to +340 at FD. Oddmakers likely moved that line as a way to entice more bets on Dallas to even the betting market. 

What’s interesting is historical stats would say to back the Cowboys. 

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is 4-1 against the spread when he’s an underdog of 7 or more points. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is 6-11-2 ATS when the Eagles are a favorite of 7 points or more. 

Advantage Cowboys? The money would say no. 

Not only are Eagles getting 61% of the tickets bet on them (typically public), but they’re also getting 75% of the total money. As I explained in the SI Betting newsletter (you should sign up!), that indicates the sharp money is on the Eagles to cover, though it likely came at that -7.5 number. 

The Eagles walloped the Cowboys in both of their games last year, outscoring Dallas 75-13 in their games. They would have easily covered 8.5 in either. 

SI NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is staying away from the spread, however, and focusing on the total. He thinks the Eagles' defense will hold Prescott and the Cowboys' offense in check. He pointed out Philly led the league in yards per play allowed, and also pointed to Prescott’s struggles last year before he was injured. He’s betting the UNDER 47.5, as he explained in his Road to 272 column. 

It’s the season opener, and weird things happen. But Philly was a step ahead of Dallas last year and nothing that happened this offseason, including the Cowboys trading All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons and getting a new coach, suggests anything different this year. 

It’s not sexy, but I’d roll with Mac on the UNDER. 

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