James Wood Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction: Nationals Star is Dark Horse Candidate

Sean Treppedi | Jul 14, 2025

James Wood is a dark-horse favorite to win the 2025 Home Run Derby. / Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Washington’s rising slugger enters the 2025 Derby as a dark-horse favorite with +370 odds to win. 

The 22‑year‑old James Wood has produced scorching Statcast numbers this season, ranking in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity (93.6 mph) and barrel rate. His 56% hard-hit rate drastically improved from his rookie campaign. Woods’ max exit velocity has surged past 117 mph, and his swing is among the flattest and most efficient in the game. 

There are, however, notable caveats to his candidacy. Wood has the lowest average launch angle among the eight participants, hovering near a contact-optimized swing that thrives on opposite-field line drives. 

In a Derby setting, optimal strategy often demands pull-side loft; generating consistent angles toward left center and deep left field may not play to his strengths. Adjustments to peak Derby performance could be necessary for him to win, but even slight swing alterations may impact his rhythm.

Wood's functional athleticism suggests he’s capable of adapting to this format on the fly. His ability to sustain tremendous impact over extended sessions, rather than brief game bursts, may work in his favor here.

All told, I think Wood is at least a semifinal contender and a novelty pick to win. The Derby format may stretch his swing into unfamiliar territory, but his underlying power tools are still enough. If he makes the required tweaks to promote his fly-ball, pull-side propensity, he’s a threat. 

Here's how Wood projects to move through the tournament.

James Wood’s 2025 Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Home Run Derby Champion: +370
• To Make the Finals: +186
• To Make Semifinals: -168

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