Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction, Odds for US Open Fourth Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Jannik Sinner-Alexander Bublik match in the fourth round of the US Open.

Jannik Sinner is heavily favored in Round 4 of the US Open. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

For the third time this year, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner will take on No. 23 Alexander Bublik – this time in a crucial match at the US Open.

This fourth-round clash is the second time these players have met at a Grand Slam in 2025, as Sinner defeated Bublik in the French Open quarterfinals. Bublik got revenge later on this year, defeating Sinner at Halle (3-6, 6-3, 6-4). 

Sinner has put together one of the most impressive years at Grand Slam events, reaching the final in every one to date while winning two (the Australian Open and Wimbledon). However, he’s recently dealt with some health issues, making this an interesting matchup against Bublik, who has beaten Sinner twice in his career.

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to Round 4 and my prediction. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner: -2000
• Alexander Bublik: +900

Total

• 32.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Sept. 1
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Jannik Sinner: How Did They Get Here?

Sinner rolled through the first two rounds of the US Open – as expected – but he struggled a little early in Round 3 before winning in four sets against No. 27 Denis Shapovalov.

The defending champion at the US Open, Sinner has made the final in every Grand Slam so far in 2025. He’s 4-2 all time against Bublik, but he did lose their last meeting. 

Alexander Bublik: How Did They Get Here?

After winning his first and second round matches in straight sets, Bublik battled in Round 3 against No. 14 Tommy Paul, eventually winning the match in five sets. It was an impressive victory for Bublik, and now he will look to pull off another upset on Monday.

In the US Open in his career, Bublik has just one other appearance where he made it to the third round. This is the first fourth-round showing in New York of his career. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds for this match – Sinner -2000 – the No. 1 player in the world has an implied probability of 95.24 percent to reach the quarterfinals for the third time at the US Open.

The defending champ deserves to be favored, but should bettors look to fade him elsewhere in this match? 

After cruising through the first two rounds, Sinner struggled a bit in the third round, dropping the first set to Shapovalov before going on to win. He ended up winning six more games than Shapovalov, but he would have failed to cover the 7.5 games spread that is set for this match.

Bublik – unlike most players – has actually played Sinner well, beating him earlier this year and in 2023 (also at Halle).

Sinner dominated Bublik at the French Open, but this match is not on clay, but a hard surface. Bublik has fared much better on hard/grass surfaces in his matches against Sinner. 

I think there’s a chance that Bublik steals a set in this match, and I do think he can keep things close with Sinner – especially if the No. 1 player is at less than 100 percent. 

Bublik impressed in his third-round win over Paul, taking him to five sets. If he does that with Sinner, he’lll likely cover this spread. 

Pick: Bublik +7.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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