Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin Prediction, Odds for US Open Second Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin match in the second round of the US Open.

Jannik Sinner is a massive favorite on Thursday. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner dominated his first-round match at the US Open, showing no major signs of injury after he retired in the Cincinnati Open final earlier this month.

Now, Sinner heads to the second round to face Alexei Popyrin, who advanced to the second round after winning in straight sets in Round 1.

Sinner is looking to defend his US Open title, and oddsmakers have set him as a massive favorite in Round 2. 

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to the second round, and my prediction for Thursday’s match. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner: -2500
• Alexei Popyrin: +1300

Total

• 31.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Aug. 28
• Time: 11:30 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Jannik Sinner: How Did They Get Here?

Sinner dominated in the first round of this year’s US Open, losing just four games to Vit Kopriva to advance.

Over the last four years, Sinner has at least made the fourth round in every US Open, and he has made every final in the Grand Slams in 2025. 

He does not have a win against Popyrin in his career, although their lone match came back in 2021. 

Alexei Popyrin: How Did They Get Here?

Popyrin defeated Emil Ruusuvuori in straight sets in the first round, although he did go to a tiebreak in the third set.

Last year, Popyrin made the fourth round of the US Open before getting knocked out, and he certainly has a lot of experience at Grand Slams (since 2018), but he has not had a quarterfinal appearance. 

He defeated Sinner on clay in 2021 in the Round of 32 at the ATP Masters 1000 Madrid.

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds – Sinner -2500 – the No. 1 player in the world has an implied probability of 96.15 percent to advance to the third round.

I’m not putting too much stock into the 2021 matchup between these players, as Sinner has become arguably the best player in the world in recent years, dominating at every Grand Slam in 2025.

He’s had a ton of success at the US Open, and he lost just four games (needed 22 total) to advance to the second round.

I expect the No. 1 player in the world to win this in straight sets, which means Popyrin would need to take 14 games to push this OVER the total. Maybe he wins a set, but I’m not willing to bet on it given Sinner’s dominance early on in these Grand Slam events. 

At Wimbledon, Sinner lost just seven, five and five games in the first three rounds.

The UNDER is the play on Thursday.

Pick: UNDER 31.5 Games (-120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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