Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds for US Open Final

Who will win the US Open Final?

Jannik Sinner (left) and Carlos Alcaraz will battle in the US Open Final. / Phil Didion/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Another Grand Slam Final, another showdown between No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz.

The two top players in the world played an instant classic in the French Open with Alcaraz coming out on top and then Sinner got his revenge with a win at Wimbledon. Now, they’ll battle for another Grand Slam in the US Open Final on Sunday.

Sinner is set as a slight favorite in this match as he aims to defend his US Open title, but Alcaraz (the 2022 winner) has had his fair share of success in New York.

With these two players facing off several times in 2025, there is a ton of historical data to lean on when making a bet on this match.

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to this spot and my prediction for the US Open Final. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner: -135
• Carlos Alcaraz: +110

Total

• 40.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 7
• Time: 2:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV):

Jannik Sinner: How Did They Get Here?

Sinner had some nervous moments early in the semifinal, but he knocked off Felix Auger-Aliassime in four sets to get back to the US Open Final.

Sinner has made all four Grand Slam Finals in 2025, winning both Wimbledon and the Australian Open. Can he take home a third title? It won’t be easy, as his win against Alcaraz at Wimbledon is the only time he’s beaten the Spaniard since the start of 2024. 

Carlos Alcaraz: How Did They Get Here?

Alcaraz put on a clinic in the semifinal, defeating Djokovic 6-4, 7-6, 6-2 to advance to the US Open Final for the second time in his career.

So far in this tournament, Alcaraz has not dropped a set, building on what has been an impressive 2025 where he’s won one Grand Slam and participated in two finals (not including Sunday’s match).

Against Sinner, Alcaraz is 3-1 this year, winning their last match in the Cincinnati Open Final after Sinner retired. Alcaraz is 9-5 against the No. 1 player in the world in his career. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds – Sinner -135 – the No. 1 player in the world has an implied probability of 57.45 percent to repeat as the US Open champion.

Alcaraz has won six of the last seven matches between these two superstars and nine of the 14 that they’ve played against each other.

However, I think the best bet for this match is the total number of games.

When looking back at their recent matchups in a Grand Slam, Sinner and Alcaraz almost always go the distance: 

• 2025 Wimbledon Final: 40 Games
• 2025 French Open Final: 59 Games
• 2024 French Open Semifinal: 45 Games
• 2022 US Open Quarterfinal: 56 Games
• 2022 Wimbledon Round of 16: 39 Games

Both players have been dominant in this US Open, but Sinner did drop a set in the semifinals against Auger-Aliassime. I wouldn’t be shocked if this match goes the distance on Sunday, especially since both stars have won a US Open in their careers. 

Pick: OVER 40.5 Games (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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