Jannik Sinner vs. Denis Shapovalov Prediction, Odds for US Open Third Round

Iain MacMillan | Aug 29, 2025

Jannik Sinner is a massive favorite against Denis Shapovalov in the third round at the U.S. Open. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Round 3 of the U.S. Open will continue on Saturday, including a marquee matchup between No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 27 Denis Shapovalov.

Sinner enters the tournament as the defending champion, having not lost at the U.S. Open since the fourth round of the 2-23 tournament. He hasn't failed to make the fourth round at this event since 2020.

Let's take a look at the odds and my prediction for this Round 3 showdown.

Jannik Sinner vs. Denis Shapovalov Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner -8000
• Denis Shapovalov +2200

Total Games

• 29.5 (Over -110/Under -122)

Jannik Sinner vs. Denis Shapovalov How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, August 30
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Jannik Sinner: How They've Fared at U.S. Open

Jannik Sinner is the No. 1-ranked men's player in the world, but despite him being the defending champion, the U.S. Open has been historically his worst Grand Slam based on win percentage. He has won 77% of his matches at the U.S. Open, compared to 79% at the French Open, 83% at Wimbledon, and 85% at the Australian Open.

Sinner defeated Vit Kopriva and Alexei Popyrin in straight sets in the first two rounds. Neither won more than three games in a set against the Italian.

Denis Shapovalov: How They've Fared at U.S. Open

The U.S. Open has been Denis Shapovalov's best Grand Slam in his career. He made it to the quarterfinals here back in 2020 and has a 68% win percentage here, 7% better than Wimbledon, his next best Grand Slam.

He defeated Marton Fucsovics in straight sets in the first round and then defeated Valentin Royer in Round 2 in four sets.

Jannik Sinner vs. Denis Shapovalov

Jannik Sinner is set as the -8000 favorite. You'll struggle to find a favorite this big in any round in the tournament, let alone a seeded vs. seeded match in the third round. Sinner's implied probability of winning is 98.77%, which speaks to how dominant Sinner has been of late.

With that being said, Shapovalov beat Sinner in the only time in their career they faced each other, beating him in the Round of 128 in the 2021 edition of the Australian Open.

I'm going to back Shapovalov in a sense in this match. Not to win the whole thing, but the price on him to win at least one set is more than fair. Shapovalov is in solid form heading into this event, winning Los Cabos in Mexico last month.

Let's take him to squeak out a set against the defending champ.

Pick: Shapovalov to Win At Least One Set (+215) via FanDuel

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