Jannik Sinner vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Odds for US Open Quarterfinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Jannik Sinner vs. Lorenzo Musetti match in the quarterfinals of the US Open.

Jannik Sinner is a massive favorite in the US Open quarterfinals. / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is looking to defend his US Open title, and he’s made the quarterfinals in dominant fashion, dropping just one set over his first four matches.

He’ll face No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals on Wednesday, the third time these two players will match up in their careers.

Musetti has been solid in 2025, reaching the semifinals of the French Open. He’s looking for his third semifinal appearance at a Grand Slam with an upset win over Sinner.

Sinner needs just three more wins to capture another US Open title, and oddsmakers seem to think he’ll at least make the semifinals with ease, setting him at -2000 to win this match.

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to the quarterfinals and my prediction for this match. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Lorenzo Musetti Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Jannik Sinner: -2000
• Lorenzo Musetti: +1000

Total

• 31.5 (Over -125/Under -110)

Jannik Sinner vs. Lorenzo Musetti How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 3
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Jannik Sinner: How Did They Get Here?

Sinner defeated Alexander Bublik in straight sets (6-1, 6-1, 6-1) on Monday to advance to the quarterfinals, and he’s looked borderline unbeatable so far in this tournament.

The No. 1 player in the world won the Australian Open, lost in the final of the French Open and won Wimbledon. So, he’s trying to make a fourth final in 2025 at a Grand Slam.

In his career against Musetti, Sinner is 2-0, although he did technically lose a match by walkover in the 2023 quarterfinals in Barcelona. Musetti and Sinner have not matched up since 2023.  

Lorenzo Musetti: How Did They Get Here?

The No. 10 player in the world, Musetti had never made it past the third round of the US Open until this year. 

He knocked off Jaume Munar, 6-3, 6-0, 6-1 in Round 4 to set up this date with Sinner on Wednesday. This is a tough task for anyone, and Musetti has yet to win a set against Sinner in their short history against each other. 

Jannik Sinner vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds – Sinner -2000 – the Italian has an implied probability of 95.24 percent to advance to the semifinals in the 2025 US Open.

Sinner has dropped just one set all tournament, and he defeated Bublik while losing just three games in Round 4.

This is a daunting task for Musetti, who has never won a set against Sinner and only has two quarterfinal wins in his career at Grand Slam events.

While Musetti has been great in this tournament, winning three of his four matches in straight sets, I can’t fade Sinner.

The No. 1 player in the world looks poised to make another final, and I’ll back him to win this match in straight sets on Wednesday. 

Pick: Sinner in Straight Sets (-150 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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