Joe Burrow Injury Update Moves Bengals vs Patriots Odds Toward Cincinnati

Brian Giuffra | Nov 21, 2025

Joe Burrow is questionable, but the odds for Bengals-Patriots indicate he will play. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Joe Burrow is listed as questionable for the Bengals upcoming home game against the Patriots, but oddsmakers appear confident Cincinnati’s quarterback will suit up on Sunday. 

The Bengals opened the week as +8.5 point underdogs at DraftKings. That line moved to +7.5 after Burrow was a full participant at practice the last several days. Now, even after Burrow was listed as questionable on Friday, the Bengals have dropped to +6.5 at DK. 

That consistent odds movement toward the Bengals indicate oddsmakers believe Burrow will play. This isn’t sharp money moving the line. This is a player’s health. 

FanDuel is offering player props on Burrow in the game too. They have his current over/under passing yards prop set at 243.5 yards with -114 odds on either side. They also have his over/under passing TDs set at 1.5, with the OVER at -160. 

Burrow hasn’t played since Week 2. He has been recovering from turf toe and the Bengals have stumbled in his absence. Cincinnati is 3-7. For the Bengals to have any chance at making the playoffs, they’d likely have to sweep their remaining seven games starting this week. 

The Bengals are +1800 on DK to make the playoffs and -6000 to miss them. The Patriots aren’t the only major obstacle standing in their way either. They face the Ravens two out of three weeks with the Bills in between. +1800 are bad odds for what amounts to a seven-leg parlay. 

Rather than bet on the spread for this game, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan took the OVER 48.5 points earlier this week. That has since moved to 51.1 points. Here’s Mac’s thinking. 

Mac’s take: Ja'Marr Chase being suspended for this game certainly doesn't help the OVER, but at the end of the day, this is still a matchup between two teams whose offenses are far better than their defenses. The Patriots rank ninth in offensive DVOA but 28th in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bengals rank 14th in offensive DVOA but 32nd in defensive DVOA.

It's hard to fully articulate just how bad this Bengals' defense is. They're in last place in almost every defensive metric. In addition to DVOA, they're last in opponent yards per play (6.3) and opponent EPA per play, and 31st in opponent success rate. The Patriots should have no issue contributing to the OVER in this game, and hopefully the Bengals' offense can string together enough points against the less-than-stellar Patriots' defense to help contribute to the total as well.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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