Juan Soto's AL MVP Odds Plummet Following Injury Scare

Will the New York Yankees superstar miss serious time this season? The odds suggest he could.
New York Yankees right fielder Juan Soto.
New York Yankees right fielder Juan Soto. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE: Juan Soto's MRI came back with only inflammation, according to MLB insider Jon Heyman. His AL MVP odds have still dropped to +450 at FanDuel Sportsbook -- but they have rebounded after falling as low as +650.

What follows is the initial story of the odds movement following Soto's exit from Thursday night's game against the Minnesota Twins. His odds have remained the same at DraftKings Sportsbook (+235) throughout this process.

New York Yankees fans everywhere held their breath on Thursday night after Juan Soto was lifted from the team's win with what the Yankees called, "left forearm discomfort."

Soto, who is off to a great start this season, was one of the favorites to win the American League MVP award entering Thursday night's action.

However, MLB insider Jon Heyman revealed on Friday that the Yankees are "nervous" when it comes to Soto and his injury and his odds have fallen since the injury occurred.

Soto is slashing an impressive .318/.424/.603 with 17 homers on the season. He was right behind teammate Aaron Judge in the odds as the No. 2 favorite for the AL MVP.

That has since changed at FanDuel Sportsbook, a sign that Soto could be looking at a stint on the injured list. Even if Soto plays, oddsmakers may be taking their chance on him being less effective with his forearm bothering him, at least in terms of his ability to win AL MVP.

Here are the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

2024 American League MVP Odds

  • Aaron Judge: +125
  • Bobby Witt Jr.: +450
  • Gunnar Henderson: +450
  • Juan Soto: +650
  • Kyle Tucker: +1100

Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson have leapfrogged Soto in the latest AL MVP odds. Soto dropped from +210 to +650 since being removed from Thursday's game, a massive falloff that signals oddsmakers believe he's at least expected to miss some time or be less effective in the MVP race.

The other important note here is Judge has jumped to a clear favorite in this market. After posting an OPS over 1.400 in May, Judge is now hitting .289 on the season and leads baseball in homers (21), doubles, and walks drawn.

Despite the movement at FanDuel, that isn't the case everywhere in the betting market.

The odds for the AL MVP are much different at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Aaron Judge: +180
  • Juan Soto: +235
  • Bobby Witt Jr.: +340
  • Gunnar Henderson: +400
  • Kyle Tucker: +1000

In this case, oddsmakers still believe in Soto's AL MVP case, although Witt Jr. and Henderson are right on his heels for the No. 2 spot.

Until the Yankees officially announce a roster move, Soto's status is truly up in the air.

The star outfielder addressed the media on Thursday, saying he's been dealing with the ailment for a couple of weeks. While he's been able to play through it, there has to be some concern that this has been building over time.

Soto didn't have to make many throws against the Twins on Thursday, and it's unclear if there is a specific spot where he could have aggravated his forearm that led to his removal from the game.

If the injury isn't bothering Soto when he hits, he theoretically could stay in the AL-leading Yankees lineup as a designated hitter.

The problem? That spot is usually manned by slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has been injury-prone in the past and is certainly risky to play in the field. For now, the Yankees and their fans -- and Soto bettors -- are hoping for some positive news about his injury in the coming days.

I think this helps Judge's MVP case the most, as the Yankees would rely even more on the 2022 AL MVP if Soto can't play for any period.

Judge has finished in the top five in MVP voting in three different seasons in his MLB career.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Peter Dewey


Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.