Kentucky Derby Prediction, Longshot, and Trifecta Picks (Can a Japanese Horse Win the Run for the Roses?)

Iain MacMillan | May 3, 2025

Luxor Cafe is trying to become the first Japanese horse to win the Kentucky Derby. / Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Kentucky Derby is this Saturday, so it's time to place your bets!

The Run for the Roses is the one horse race a year that brings all expert and casual racing fans together. If you're looking for some picks for the race but you don't have the time to do the research, have no fear, that's what I'm here for. I've dove into the numbers and have come up with my best bets for this weekend's big race.

First, let's take a look at the odds to win the Kentucky Derby, and then I'll give you my best bet to win, my favorite longshot, and a trifecta for those of you who want to try to win a big payout.

2025 Kentucky Derby Odds

Odds via FanDuel Horse Racing

• 8. Journalism +250
• 18. Sovereignty +600
• 17. Sandman +700
• 7. Luxor Cafe +1000
• 5. American Promise +1200
• 21. Baeza +1200
• 9. Burnham Square +1400
• 1. Citizen Bull +1600
• 10. Grande +1600
• 14. Tiztastic +1800
• 16. Coal Battle +2000
• 3. Final Gambit +2000
• 12. East Avenue +2500
• 13. Publisher +3000
• 15. Render Judgement +3000
• 19. Chunk of Gold +3500
• 6. Admire Dayton +3500
• 2. Neoequos +5000
• 20. Owen Almighty +5000
• 11. Fly Mohawk +5000
• 4. Rodriguez (SCRATCHED)

2025 Kentucky Derby Prediction

The horse racing hipsters out there will tell you that it's only a matter of time before a Japanese horse wins this race. I'm part of that group, and I plan on continuing that belief this time around.

There are two Japanese horses in this race, and the one with the better odds of pulling it odds is Luxor Cafe. He enters the Run for the Roses having won four straight races, and he has a fantastic pedigree with Triple Crown winner, American Pharaoh, in his blood. The other Japanese horse in this race is Admire Daytona, but Luxor Cafe has already beaten him twice.

Is this the year a Japanese horse finally pulls it off? I say yes.

Pick to win: Luxor Cafe +1000

2025 Kentucky Derby Dark Horse

10-1 odds on Luxor Cafe doesn't get your blood flowing? Want to bet a horse to win with even longer odds? I don't blame you.

Consider Publisher in the No. 13 spot at 30-1. The argument against him is that he's never actually won a race, and the last horse to break its maiden at the Kentucky Derby was Brokers Tip back in 1933. With that being said, consider the fact he's being ridden by one of the best jockeys on the planet, Irad Ortiz Jr. Publisher's trainer, Steve Asmussen, said that he's "the easiest horse we've ever saddled in the Derby".

Let's take a shot on him at 30-1.

Long shot pick: Publisher +3000

2025 Kentucky Derby Trifecta Bet

Obviously, I like my best bet, Luxor Cafe, and my favorite dark horse, Publisher, in a trifecta, but for content purposes, I'm going to draw up a Trifecta that doesn't include those two horses to give you, the people, some different options.

If you want to bet on the favorite, Journalism, but don't want to bet on him outright, tossing him in a Trifecta may be the way to do it. He's the clear best horse in the field. Not only does he have the fastest Beyer Speed Figure in the field, but the second fastest as well.

When making a trifecta, we're not just looking at horses who can win. Consider a couple of horses who have made a career of finishing near the top in every race. One of them is the No. 2 horse, Neoequos, who has never finished worse than third in his last six starts. Neoequos always gets off to a fast start, the only question will be if he can hold on to remain until the mix near the end.

Another horse that is consistently near the top at the end of every race is the No. 19 horse, Chunk of Gold. He has never finished worse than second in four career starts. At the very least, he could give us a great sweat down the final stretch.

Trifecta pick: 1st - Journalism, 2nd - Neoequos, 3rd - Chunk of Gold

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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