Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Reed Wallach | Mar 27, 2025

Mar 22, 2025; Lexington, KY, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Chaz Lanier (2) shoots the ball against UCLA Bruins center Aday Mara (15) during the second half in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at Rupp Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

SEC rivals meet in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. 

No. 3 seed Kentucky will look to beat No. 2 seed Tennessee for the third time this season, but this time with the stakes at its highest with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line. Despite controlling the season series, the Wildcats are a small betting underdog. 

How should we bet on this Sweet 16 showdown? We have you covered below!

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Kentucky: +4.5 (-115)
• Tennessee: -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Kentucky: +155
• Tennessee: -188

Total: 145.5 (Over -106/Under -114)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Kentucky vs. Tennessee How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 28th
• Game Time: 7:39 PM EST
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Kentucky Record: 24-11
• Tennessee Record: 29-7

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Key Players to Watch

Kentucky

Lamont Butler: The veteran transfer guard from San Diego State shutdown Kaspras Jakucionis in the Wildcats' Round of 32 win, racking up three steals and applying ample ball pressure that had UK in front from the opening tip. After scoring zero points in the first round, Butler finished with 14 points and five assists in the win against Illinois. He played in only one of the team’s two wins against Tennessee this season, scoring only six points but dishing out four assists and racking up three steals. 

Tennessee

Chaz Lanier: The North Florida transfer has found his perimeter shot, shooting 41% from beyond the arc this season but did suffer through an SEC play swoon. In the NCAA Tournament, he scored 49 points across two games while shooting a blistering 10-of-19 from beyond the arc while adding three steals. Against Kentucky in the regular season, he averaged 12.5 points per game on 15% shooting from three-point range. 

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

Tennessee is a jump shot reliant offense, which is what Kentucky wants to do on defense. 

The Wildcats are shaky at containing penetration, but the team walls off the paint well and forces teams to shoot well from the perimeter. The Wildcats had its way in the regular season series, as Tennessee shot 14-of-63 (22%) in the two losses to Kentucky. 

Will this continue? The Vols are a national average three-point shooting team (34.5%), but shoot it at a top 80 clip. With an incredibly methodical tempo that ranks 346th in the country according to KenPom, the team must shoot well in order to keep up with an elite Kentucky offense. 

While one game went over the total and the other went under a similar number of 146 in both games, I’m inclined to go under in this one. 

For starters, the teams will be playing at Lucas Oil Stadium, a football stadium that is sure to bring unique sightlines into play. Both teams are jump-shooting offenses and this can lead to a clunky start as each team looks to operate in the halfcourt with Tennessee’s elite defense dictating the pace. 

This game simply comes down to who can win the shooting battle, but I don’t trust either given the scheme familiarity, so I’ll side with the under. 

PICK: UNDER 145.5 (-114, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.