Knicks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 2

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Knicks-Miami Heat matchup on Sunday, March 2.

New York Knicks guard Josh Hart is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat have won back-to-back games to jump into the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference heading into Sunday’s matchup with the New York Knicks.

These teams haven’t played since Jimmy Butler was traded to the Golden State Warriors, but there has been a little bit of a rivalry between the Knicks and Heat since their playoff series in the 2022-23 campaign. 

New York, which is coming off a massive road win against the Memphis Grizzlies, is the No. 3 seed in the East and eyeing its 40th win of the 2024-25 season on Sunday.

Oddsmakers have set the Knicks as road favorites in this matchup, but they have struggled a bit against the spread as of late, losing badly to Cleveland and Boston last weekend before failing to cover against Philadelphia as a favorite on Wednesday night. 

Can New York turn things around against a Miami team that is still two games under .500 in the 2024-25 season?

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction on Sunday. 

Knicks vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Knicks -6.5 (-112)
• Heat +6.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Knicks: -245
• Heat: +200

Total

• 220.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Knicks vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 2
• Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): MSG, Bally Sports Sun
• Knicks record: 39-20
• Heat record: 28-30

Knicks vs. Heat Injury Reports

Knicks Injury Report

• Josh Hart – probable
• Ariek Hukporti – out
• Mitchell Robinson – probable
• Kevin McCullar Jr. – out
• Jacob Toppin – out

Heat Injury Report

• Bam Adebayo – available
• Josh Christopher – out
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. – doubtful
• Keshad Johnson – out
• Dru Smith – out
• Nikola Jovic – out
• Isaiah Stevens – out
• Andrew Wiggins – doubtful

Knicks vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

New York Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Josh Hart OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-140)

After a two-game absence due to a knee injury, Josh Hart has returned to grab 11, 17, and four boards in his last three games.

While his four-rebound game may look like a concern, Hart only played 28 minutes in that game after picking up his fifth foul five minutes into the second half. Usually, Hart is in the mix for about 38-40 minutes in Tom Thibodeau's rotation. 

This is a great matchup for the Knicks guard, as the Heat are just 22nd in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game, and Hart is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game in the 2024-25 season. In his first matchup with Miami, Hart grabbed 14 rebounds in just over 42 minutes of action. 

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Tyler Herro OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+114)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Tyler Herro is a great bet against this Knicks defense: 

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro lit up the New York Knicks earlier this season, knocking down 8-of-13 shots from beyond the arc.

The Knicks are the worst 3-point defense in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 37.7 percent from deep for the season.

Herro is averaging 3.6 made 3s on 9.7 attempts per game, hitting four or more 3s in six of his last 15 games. While Herro is shooting awfully over that stretch (28.3 percent from deep on 10.1 attempts per game), I think this is a perfect get-right spot for Miami’s No. 1 option on offense. 

Knicks vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

The Knicks are over .500 against the spread when favored on the road this season, but I’m not buying them as 6.5-point favorites against a Heat team that is one of the better defensive units in the NBA.

The Knicks have struggled on the defensive end all season long, and they’re 23rd in the NBA in net rating over their last 10 games due to some blowout losses.

Miami is 19th in net rating over that same stretch.

Now, the Heat are just 3-5 against the spread as home dogs, but both of these teams are in the bottom 10 in the league in pace, meaning this game is going to be played in the half-court for the most part on Sunday.

New York had a double-digit lead against an inferior Philly team on Wednesday, but it nearly blew it and failed to cover. On Friday night, the Knicks trailed for most of the game against Memphis before a late fourth-quarter comeback earned them a one-point win.

I’m not sold on New York running away with this game since its defense has been so porous (19th in defensive rating) in the 2024-25 season.  

Pick: Heat +6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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