Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Anthony Edwards, Pacers-Bulls)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Sunday, March 2, including a pick for Nikola Jokic.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a great prop target on Sunday. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

After a terrific close to February that pushed this season’s record into the green, Peter’s Points returns for the first time in March for a massive Sunday slate.

On Sunday, there is a potential NBA Finals matchup between the Boston Celtics and the Denver Nuggets to kick off the action at 1 p.m. EST, but that’s not the only great game on the day’s slate: 

• Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics
• Portland Trail Blazers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
• New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
• Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
• Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns

There are a couple of playoff rematches from the last few years (New York vs. Miami and Minnesota vs. Phoenix), as well as a second straight battle of Los Angeles. 

Some key players on the injury report on Sunday (Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Edwards, LeBron James, and Luka Doncic), but I still have a few props that I like for the day’s slate.

Here’s a full breakdown of the best bets in the NBA on Sunday, March 2. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 167-156-4 (+3.63 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1177-1101-26 (+41.72 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Nikola Jokic OVER 26.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Anthony Edwards OVER 27.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Tyler Herro OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+114) – 0.5 unit
• Indiana Pacers -10.5 (-112) vs. Chicago Bulls – 0.5 unit

Nikola Jokic OVER 26.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

I’m backing Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic in the 1 p.m. EST matchup against Boston, as the MVP candidate could have a big game against this depleted Boston frontcourt. 

In his last four meetings against Boston (dating back to Nov. 2022), Jokic has 29 or more points in four straight showings, making him an interesting value pick on Sunday.

The Celtics are likely going to be without their best shot-blocker in Kristaps Porzingis (doubtful), and Jokic has shown this season that he’s willing to score the ball at a high level when the game calls for it. The three-time league MVP is averaging 29.1 points per game this season, and he’s cleared 26.5 points in eight of his last 13 games. 

Anthony Edwards OVER 27.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

After missing the Minnesota Timberwolves' last game due to a suspension, Anthony Edwards has a revenge matchup (maybe against the NBA?) on Sunday against the Phoenix Suns. 

Edwards is averaging 27.3 points per game while shooting 43.7 percent from the field and 40.5 percent from 3. With Julius Randle out as of late, Edwards has taken a ton of shots, averaging 23.3 field goal attempts per game since the start of February.

Over that stretch (10 games), Edwards is averaging over 30 points per game while shooting 39.1 percent from the field. While the efficiency isn’t there, Edwards could be undervalued at this number against a Phoenix team that is dead last in the NBA in defensive rating over its last 15 games.  

Tyler Herro OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+114) – 0.5 unit

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro lit up the New York Knicks earlier this season, knocking down 8-of-13 shots from beyond the arc.

The Knicks are the worst 3-point defense in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 37.7 percent from deep for the season.

Herro is averaging 3.6 made 3s on 9.7 attempts per game, hitting four or more 3s in six of his last 15 games. While Herro is shooting awfully over that stretch (28.3 percent from deep on 10.1 attempts per game), I think this is a perfect get-right spot for Miami’s No. 1 option on offense. 

Indiana Pacers -10.5 (-112) vs. Chicago Bulls – 0.5 unit

This is a great matchup for the Indiana Pacers, as the Chicago Bulls are one of the worst defenses in the NBA and rank 25th in the league in net rating over their last 15 games.

Indiana, on the other hand, is 10th in net rating over that stretch and has a pretty elite uptempo offense that should take advantage of the Bulls playing at a frenetic pace (third in the league) despite Chicago’s lack of talent on the offensive end since the Zach LaVine trade. 

The Pacers have also been solid when favored at home – 10-8-1 against the spread – and they’ve picked up wins by nine and 16 points against Chicago already this season. 

I’ll gladly lay the points here with the Bulls more focused on the draft lottery than making the play-in at this point in the season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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