Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction, Odds and Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Thursday, March 6

Reed Wallach | Mar 5, 2025

Dec 23, 2024; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders forward Essam Mostafa (44) moves the ball against Tennessee Volunteers guard Jahmai Mashack (15) during the first half at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images / Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Two teams jockeying for the Conference USA title meet on Thursday night with plenty on the line. 

Both Liberty and Middle Tennessee are a half-game behind Jacksonville State for first place in Conference USA as we reach the final week of the regular season. So, with the two teams in second place facing off on Thursday, who will be eliminated from the regular season title race?

Here’s our betting preview. 

Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Liberty: +1.5 (-120)
• Middle Tennessee: -1.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Liberty: -108
• Middle Tennessee: -111

Total: 140.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 6th
• Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
• Venue: Murphy Center
• How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
• Liberty Record: 23-6
• MIddle Tennessee Record: 20-9

Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Key Players to Watch

Liberty

Kaden Metheny: In the first meeting that Liberty won 73-63, Metheny poured in 19 points to go with four rebounds and a pair of assists. The veteran guard has been mired with poor shooting in Conference USA play, but he showed his upside in the win against the Blue Raiders. Can he find his efficiency in a massive game for CUSA positioning?

Middle Tennessee

Essam Mostafa: The MTSU big man is one of the most dominant players in the league tops in rebounding percentage while posting a top 10 effective field goal percentage as a beast around the rim, shooting 62% on two’s this season. 

Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction and Pick

The first game was dictated by Liberty on its home floor, hitting 10 threes en route to a comfortable victory against Middle Tennessee. 

For the Blue Raiders to win, the team must improve its perimeter defense, which it typically does a fine job of. The team is allowing the second lowest three-point rate in Conference USA play, but have been torched in league play from a distance as opponents are shooting about 35% from beyond the arc. 

Liberty is the second-best three-point shooting team in CUSA play and showcased its advantage in this department in the win, but on their home floor, I believe MTSU can dictate the terms of this game and funnel Liberty inside the arc. 

On the other end, Middle Tennessee will look to unpack the Liberty defense with Mostafa as a rim-running big man against a vulnerable Flames interior defense. 

The Flames have been trending downward on offense of late. Over the last month, the team is 200th in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency as its reliance on the three-point shot has led to some unsustainable results. The team is taking more than 52% of its shots from beyond the arc, but it is allowing the 23rd lowest effective field goal percentage in that time. 

I believe the Blue Raiders can keep the Flames down from the perimeter and dictate this game on the interior on its home floor and score a massive win ahead of the regular season.

PICK: Middle Tennessee ML (-111, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.