Liberty vs. Sun Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 1

Sean Treppedi | Aug 1, 2025

Sabrina Ionescu will be in the driver's seat to shake the Liberty's funk against the lowly Sun. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The Liberty head to Connecticut on Friday night looking to snap a three-game skid and reaffirm their place among the league’s elite. 

New York leads the WNBA in scoring at 87.9 points per game, with Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones pacing a high-powered offense that also ranks first in three-pointers made. But while their perimeter attack is humming, New York has shown cracks defensively, slipping to eighth in points allowed. 

Meanwhile, the Sun have struggled mightily all season, entering at just 4-21 and sporting the second-worst scoring margin in the league at -13.4. With limited rebounding and outside shooting, Connecticut has found it difficult to keep pace — especially against top-tier competition.

Let’s break down the matchup with a prop and prediction.

Liberty vs. Sun Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Liberty -11.5 (-110)
• Sun +11.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Liberty (-700)
• Sun (+470)

Total

• Over 167 (-110)
• Under 167 (-110)

Liberty vs. Sun How to Watch

• Date: Friday August 1, 2025
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ION
• Liberty Record: 17-9
• Sun Record: 4-21

Liberty vs. Sun Player Prop

Ionescu Over 3.5 3-pointers (+154 at FanDuel)

I’m being ambitious with Ionescu’s 3-pointer prop given her price for Over 2.5 is -174. Ionescu leads the WNBA in threes per game and faces a Sun defense that allows 34.9% from deep, second-worst in the league. Connecticut also gives up 2.4 more threes per game than it makes, a glaring disadvantage against a Liberty squad that shoots the three at a 35.4% clip. With New York looking to bounce back and Ionescu serving as the engine of their offense, the volume and efficiency should be there for a strong night from beyond the arc.

Liberty vs. Sun Prediction and Pick

The Liberty should have a firm grasp on this, but I don’t think the Sun can compensate enough to push this over. The Sun rank second-to-last in both offensive efficiency and scoring, putting up just 74.6 points per game. Their pace is among the slowest in the league, and with their inability to hit threes (30.7%) or rebound effectively, it’s unlikely they’ll generate many second-chance or transition opportunities. 

Meanwhile, while the Liberty are capable of lighting it up, three straight losses may trigger a more defensive-minded, focused approach. If Connecticut struggles to break 70 — which it has done often — and the Liberty avoid running up the score in a one-sided game, this could land comfortably under. Add in both teams ranking outside the top five in rebounding and neither excelling at getting to the line, and there’s a solid case.

Pick: Under 167 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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