Lions vs. Commanders Odds Make Massive Shift in Detroit's Favor

Brian Giuffra | Jan 14, 2025

Lions quarterback Jared Goff has led Detroit to a 12-5 record ATS this year. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Lions have been eviscerating opponents all season, much to the delight of those who have bet on them, going 15-2 overall and 12-5 against the spread. It seems no matter how wide the spread is, and it’s gone up to 14 points this year, when the Lions win, they usually cover, and there’s seemingly nothing oddsmakers or opponents can do about it. 

The latest example comes in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, where the Lions were initially set at -7.5-point favorites against the visiting Commanders at BetMGM Sportsbook, but have since seen that line move to Lions -9.5. 

Lions vs Commanders Spread Odds Then 

• Lions -7.5 (-110)
• Commanders +7.5 (-110)

Lions vs Commanders Spread Odds Now

• Lions -9.5 (-110)
• Commanders +9.5 (-110)

The Lions have been set as 9.5-point favorites or higher three times this season and are 2-1 ATS. That includes a 52-6 win over the Jaguars when they were 14-point favorites and a 52-14 win over the Titans when they were 12.5-point favorites. They beat the Bears 23-20 but failed to cover the 10-point spread in that game. The Lions have also covered as 7-point favorites against the Colts and their second game against the Bears. 

The Lions have the highest-scoring offense in the league, averaging 33.2 points per game and 4.1 touchdowns per game. They rank third in yards per play (6.2) and second in total yards (409.5). While their defense has been decimated by injuries, they have still limited opponents to 2.2 TDs per game, fifth-best in the NFL. 

The Commanders are the fifth-highest-scoring team in the NFL, averaging 28.2 points per game. They’re 10th in yards per play (5.7) and sixth in yards per game (368.6).

The biggest difference between these teams is in the red zone. The Commanders allow a scoring TD on 60.7% of red zone trips to opponents (23rd in the NFL) to just 50.9% for the Lions (seventh in the NFL). That could be a deciding factor here. 

For all their prowess, the Lions went just 5-4 ATS at home this season. All three of the aforementioned spreads of 10 or more points came at home. But now they face a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels, and over the last 10 years, rookies are 1-6 straight up and 2-5 ATS in road playoff games. 

The Lions are +110 to win the NFC with the Eagles close behind at +160. The Commanders are +1100. The Rams, who face the Eagles, are +700.

The Lions have been generous to bettors all season, putting together a sterling record both SU and ATS. Oddsmakers have tried everything to stave the tide of ATS wins by extending their odds, but it hasn’t stopped bettors from cashing in plenty of times.

We’ll see if this time is the charm. 

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.