LSU vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for SEC Tournament First Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the LSU-Mississippi State matchup in the first round of the SEC Tournament.

Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Josh Hubbard is a player to watch in the prop market on Wednesday. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Wednesday’s SEC Tournament first-round action features a matchup between the LSU Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs less than two weeks after they faced off in the regular season.

Mississippi State, which recently fell out of the AP Top 25, knocked off the Tigers by 12 points at home back on March 1.

Now, these teams are looking to advance in the SEC Tourney, with the Bulldogs aiming to improve upon an already solid resume ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

Oddsmakers have set LSU as a major underdog in this matchup, but can it hang around despite a disappointing showing in conference play in the regular season?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this first round clash. 

LSU vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• LSU +8.5 (-108)
• Mississippi State -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• LSU: +330
• Mississippi State: -425

Total

• 147.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

LSU vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 12
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• LSU record: 14-17 (3-15 SEC)
• Mississippi State record: 20-11 (8-10 SEC)

LSU vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch

LSU 

Camryn Carter: The senior guard, had a big game the last time these teams faced off, scoring 23 points, and he’s averaging 16.5 points per game while shooting 39.6 percent from beyond the arc. If LSU is going to pull off an upset – something it hasn’t done much in SEC play – Carter is going to need to have a big game scoring the ball. 

Mississippi State

Josh Hubbard: Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard went off the last time these teams played, scoring 30 points to lead Mississippi State to a 12-point win. Hubbard leads the team in scoring (18.3 points per game) and is second in assists (3.3 per game) while shooting 39.2 percent from the field and 34.3 percent from 3-point range. 

LSU vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

It’s really hard to trust this LSU team, as it comes into this game on a five-game skid and is 0-10 against AP Top 25 teams this season.

The Tigers only have wins over Arkansas, Oklahoma, and South Carolina in SEC play, and they struggled against the spread in the 2024-25 regular season, going 13-17-1.

The key difference in this matchup is with these two offenses.

Mississippi State is 21st in KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency, while the Tigers clock in at No. 126. Neither of these teams shoots the 3-ball well, but Mississippi State hits the offensive glass at a high rate.

The Bulldogs are 32nd in the country in offensive rebounds per game, and it’s helped them rank 18th in the country in shots attempted per game. 

LSU struggled to keep up in the first meeting between these teams, and I think the Bulldogs may be a little undervalued after back-to-back losses to close the regular season. They should roll on Wednesday. 

Pick: Mississippi State -8.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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