LSU vs. NC State Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the LSU-NC State matchup in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

NC State Wolfpack guard Aziaha James is looking to lead her team to an upset win. / Cory Knowlton-Imagn Images

The No. 3 LSU Tigers dominated No. 6 Florida State in the Round of 32, winning by 30 points behind a near triple-double from Aneesah Morrow to reach the Sweet 16. 

However, the Tigers won’t be the higher seed in that matchup. They’re taking on the No. 2 NC State Wolfpack, who picked up a 20-point win in the first round and 34-point win in the Round of 32 to reach another Sweet 16. 

This may end up being the best matchup of the entire Sweet 16, as oddsmakers have Kim Mulkey’s Tigers favored by just 2.5 points. LSU is finally back at full strength with Morrow and Flau'jae Johnson healthy, but is that enough to reach the Elite 8?

Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this Sweet 16 clash. 

LSU vs. NC State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• LSU -2.5 (-120)
• NC State +2.5 (+102)

Moneyline

• LSU: -162
• NC State: +132

Total

• 153.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

LSU vs. NC State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 28
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Spokane Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• LSU record: 30-5
• NC State record: 28-6

LSU vs. NC State Key Players to Watch

LSU

Aneesah Morrow: Morrow had a huge game against Florida State in the second round, dropping 26 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists. The leading rebounder in the country, Morrow is averaging 18.5 points and 13.5 rebounds per game. While Johnson is a great scorer as well, Morrow has been the engine for this LSU team this season.

NC State

Aziaha James: The leading scorer for the Wolfpack, James had 26 points and six rebounds in the second-round win over Michigan State. This season, James is averaging 18.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game while shooting 44.8 percent from the field and 33.6 percent from 3. 

LSU vs. NC State Prediction and Pick

The Tigers have dominated games this season by winning on the glass (they’re second in the country in offensive rebounds per game), but this is a tough matchup against a NC State team that does a great job on the defensive glass, ranking eighth in the country in defensive boards per game. 

LSU can score with anyone, ranking fourth in the country in points per game, but the Wolfpack may be undervalued here since they’re holding opponents to just 38.4 percent shooting from the field this season.

NC State also has a balanced offense – four players are averaging at least 11.0 points per game, while averaging 77.0 points per game.

Understandably, a healthy LSU team would be favored in this game, but the Tigers didn’t exactly dominate ranked teams in the regular season, going 6-4 straight up. 

I expect this to be a close game, and I wouldn't be shocked to see NC State pull off the upset. 

Pick: NC State +2.5 (+102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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