Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Semifinals Game 3

The Lynx are road favorites in Game 3.

The Minnesota Lynx are favored on Friday. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

A gutsy showing from the Phoenix Mercury in Game 2 of the WNBA Semifinals has led a 1-1 series tie against the Minnesota Lynx ahead of Friday’s Game 3.

Phoenix outscored Minnesota 47-31 in the second half of Game 2, eventually winning in overtime. The Mercury blew a halftime lead in Game 1, but they made up for that with a strong road showing in Game 2. 

The latest odds at the best betting sites have the No. 1-seeded Lynx favored on the road in Game 3, and the Lynx would love to force a Game 5 at home in this matchup since they’ve lost just three times (including the playoff loss on Tuesday) at Target Center this season.

Still, it’ll be tough to upset this veteran Phoenix team in Game 3, as it went 15-7 at home in the regular season.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 3 tonight.

Lynx vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Lynx -4.5 (-105)
• Mercury +4.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Lynx: -185
• Mercury: +154

Total

• 158.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Lynx vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 26
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Series: Tied 1-1

Lynx vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

• DiJonai Carrington – out

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Lynx vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Kahleah Copper OVER 13.5 Points (-120)

Kahleah Copper took just eight shots in Game 2, finishing with eight points in over 32 minutes of action, but I’m buying a bounce-back game for the former Finals MVP on Friday.

Copper averaged 15.6 points per game during the regular season, and she’s scored 14 or more points in three of her five playoff games, including a 22-point showing in Game 1 against the Lynx. Copper took 23 shots in that game, and I think her usage falls somewhere between that and the eight shots she attempted in Game 2.

Satou Sabally had things rolling for the Mercury in Game 2, so it makes sense that Copper’s usage went down a little in that matchup. At just 13.5 points, the Mercury star is worth a bet to come closer to her season average on Friday. 

Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m going back to the UNDER in Game 3: 

The Lynx and Mercury went to overtime in Game 2, finishing with 172 combined points – the first time that they’ve gone over 158.5 points in a meeting this season.

During the regular season, these teams fell short of 158.5 points four times, and the Mercury are one of the best UNDER teams in the W this season (27-19-2). 

Both of these teams finished the regular season in the top five in defensive rating, and Game 2 was on its way to the UNDER before Phoenix scored 47 second-half points to force overtime. The 14 points in OT were enough to push that game OVER. 

Now, with things back in Phoenix, I expect a low-scoring game as long as this matchup doesn’t also go to an extra period.  

Pick: UNDER 158.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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