Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Semifinals Game 4

The Mercury are favored in Game 4 against the Lynx.

The Phoenix Mercury are favored in Week 4. / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

It’s win or go home for the Minnesota Lynx on Sunday, and they’re facing an uphill battle to keep their season.

Minnesota lost a physical Game 3 in Phoenix on Friday, and it also lost superstar Napheesa Collier (ankle) in the process.

On top of that, head coach Cheryl Reeve has been suspended for criticizing the officiating in Friday’s loss. She won’t coach Game 4, where the Lynx are 5.5-point underdogs on the road.

The Lynx have been elite at home (20-2 in the regular season), so they’d love to force a Game 5 to give themselves a chance to make it back to the Finals.

However, Minnesota is just 7-4 in 11 games without Collier in 2025.

Can the Mercury, who have been surging since late in the regular season, punch their ticket to the Finals? 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Game 4.

Lynx vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Lynx +5.5 (-110)
• Mercury -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Lynx: +180
• Mercury: -218

Total

• 156 (Over -108/Under -112)

Lynx vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 28
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Phoenix leads 2-1

Lynx vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

• Napheesa Collier – out
• DiJonai Carrington – out

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Lynx vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Courtney Williams OVER 17.5 Points (+105)

Williams’ usage is way up over the last three games, as she’s taken at least 16 shots in every game, scoring 23, 20 and 14 points in those matchups.

During the regular season, Williams averaged 12.8 points per game in the 11 games that Collier missed, scoring 18 or more points in three of those matchups.

I still love Williams in this market, as she and Kayla McBride should get all the shots they can handle to keep the season alive for Minnesota. 

Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why bettors should take the UNDER in Game 4: 

With Collier out of the lineup, the Lynx are in trouble in this Game 4 matchup.

Not only does Minnesota struggle without Collier (7-4 this season), but the team’s offense goes from averaging 88.2 points per game to 79.5 points per game. 

Lynx in regular season with Napheesa Collier:
27-6 record
88.2 PPG

Without Collier:
7-4 record
79.5 PPG

— Underdog WNBA (@UnderdogWNBA) September 28, 2025

So, that sets up well for the UNDER, especially since these teams have played multiple games under this number in their matchups during the regular season.

In Game 3, the Lynx and Mercury combined for 160 points, but Collier’s absence should drop this total – especially since neither team has gotten to the line a ton in this series.

Overall, the UNDER has hit in over half of Phoenix’s games in the 2025 season. I think bettors should expect a defensive slugfest between two top-five defenses in the league with Collier out. 

Pick: UNDER -156 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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