Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction and Odds for Australian Open Final

Reed Wallach | Jan 24, 2025

Jan 24, 2025; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Madison Keys of United States of America plays a backhand during her match against Iga Swiatek of Poland in the semifinals of the women's singles at the 2025 Australian Open at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka is one win away from a third straight Australian Open title, and is heavily favored to make good on just that on Saturday in the championship match.

The No. 1 player in the world will face American Madison Keys, who is into her first Australian Open title match and second of her career. Keys has struggled against Sabalenka in her career and is a massive underdog, but can she pull the thrilling upset after stunning Iga Swiatek in the semifinals? 

Let’s break it down and give out a best bet for the finals from Melbourne!

Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Keys: +4.5 (-104)
• Sabalenka: -4.5 (-104)

Moneyline

• Keys: +275
• Sabalenka: -345

Total: 21.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 25th
• Game Time: 3:30 AM EST
• Venue: Rod Laver Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction and Pick

Sabalenka and Keys have met quite recently, including in October where the World No. 1 beat Keys in China in straight sets and rallied to beat the American at the U.S. Open in the semifinals after getting bageled in the first set. Overall, Sabalenka is 4-1 against Keys with her only loss coming on grass.

Sabalenka won the second and third sets in a tiebreaker to make for a compelling semifinals, but a possible hint that Keys can be a live underdog in this match. 

The American is playing sensational tennis, winning her last 11 matches as well as saving a match point against the five-time Grand Slam champion Swiatek before winning in a third set tiebreak. 

Of course, Sabalenka has a powerful serve and dominant ground strokes that make her a tough out, but Keys has been enjoying the best form of her career while going toe-to-toe with her just a few months ago. 

While I won’t call for the outright upset, I’ll take Keys to cover the game spread in a match that may feature extended sets into a tiebreak. Sabalenka is gunning for a three-peat, but Keys has the form to keep pace and drag this match out. 

PICK: Keys +4.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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