Mariners vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 16

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Seattle Mariners-Cincinnati Reds matchup on Wednesday night.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller. / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Reds scored eight runs and took their series opener with the Seattle Mariners on Monday night, but they find themselves as underdogs on Wednesday at home.

Cincinnati is one game over .500 in the 2025 season, but it has a tough matchup against Seattle’s Bryce Miller (3.57 career ERA) tonight. Miller is coming off a start against the Texas Rangers where he spun five innings of one-run ball in a Mariners win.

Cincy will counter with Nick Martinez, who is off to a slow start in 2025. That’s likely why the Reds are set as underdogs in this matchup, although they’re just +105 on the moneyline.

Here’s a full breakdown of this game, including the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for the winner of Game 2 of this three-game set. 

Mariners vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Mariners -1.5 (+130)
• Reds +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline

• Mariners: -125
• Reds: +105

Total

• 8.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Mariners vs. Reds Probable Pitchers

• Seattle: Bryce Miller (0-2, 4.50 ERA)
• Cincinnati: Nick Martinez (0-2, 6.06 ERA)

Mariners vs. Reds How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, April 16
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• Mariners record: 8-9
• Reds record: 9-8

Mariners vs. Reds Best MLB Prop Bets

Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

• Bryce Miller UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Earlier today, I broke down a pick for Seattle Mariners starter Bryce Miller on Wednesday in SI Betting’s Best MLB Prop Bets column: 

This season, Bryce Miller has failed to clear 5.5 strikeouts in a single game for the Seattle Mariners, punching out 13 batters across 16.0 innings of work.

He’s facing a Cincinnati Reds team that is in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts per game this season, but Miller hasn’t worked deep enough into games for me to trust him on Wednesday.

The Mariners righty has thrown at least 90 pitches in each start, but he’s failed to complete six full innings in any of his three outings, limiting his ceiling when it comes to this prop. 

Not only is Miller in just the 31st percentile in strikeout percentage, according to Statcast, but he’s not forcing a ton of swings and misses either, ranking in the 39th percentile in both whiff percentage and chase rate in 2025.  

Mariners vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

While Miller has not been insanely sharp this season, posting a 4.50 ERA while allowing eight walks and 15 hits in just 16.0 innings of work, he is the better pitcher on Wednesday.

Martinez has struggled out of the gate in 2025, leading the Reds to an 0-3 record in his starts. He’s allowed at least three runs in every game, and he ranks in just the 37th percentile in expected ERA and 18th percentile in expected batting average against. 

Both of these teams have struggled on offense, ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in OPS so far in 2025. So, I’ll side with the Mariners and Miller, especially since these two bullpens are relatively equal in 2025, both posting top-10 marks in ERA. 

Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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