Marlins vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 26

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Miami Marlins-Baltimore Orioles matchup on Monday, May 26.

The Marlins are underdogs on Memorial Day. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Marlins closed out their weekend series with back-to-back wins, and they’re aiming to take that into the start of this week against the San Diego Padres.

There’s a potential revenge game aspect for Monday’s action, as Ryan Weathers is on the mound for the Marlins against his former team. Weathers has been solid to open 2025, posting a 1.80 ERA.

He’ll be opposed by righty Randy Vazquez, who has a 3.49 ERA in 2025 but an expected ERA of 5.57, which ranks in just the 10th percentile in Major League Baseball. 

The Padres have dropped seven of their last 10 games, but they remain in the mix for the top spot in the NL West. Can they pick up a win as home favorites on Monday? 

Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Marlins +1.5 (-185)
• Padres -1.5 (+154)

Moneyline

 

• Marlins: +120
• Padres: -142

Total

• 7.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Marlins vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Miami: Ryan Weathers (1-0, 1.80 ERA)
• San Diego: Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.49 ERA)

Marlins vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 26
• Time: 8:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SDPA and FDSFL
• Marlins record: 21-30
• Padres record: 29-22

Marlins vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Kyle Stowers to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Kyle Stowers is worth a look on Monday: 

Miami Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers has 10 homers in the 2025 season, and all 10 have come against right-handed pitching.

Overall, Stowers is hitting .309 this season, and he has an impressive OPS of .922. On Monday, he takes on the San Diego Padres and Randy Vasquez, who has allowed a bunch of home runs as of late. 

Vasquez didn’t allow a homer in his first five starts of 2025, but he’s now given up five long balls over his last five outings. The righty has a 3.49 ERA and 5.08 FIP, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Marlins get to him on Monday night.

Stowers is far and away the most trustworthy power bat in the Miami lineup, and getting him at +500 is a pretty solid price since he’s homered eight times over the last 28 days (24 games). 

Marlins vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

I lean with the Marlins and Weathers to have an early lead in this game, as Vasquez has struggled at times in 2025, especially when it comes to allowing free passes. 

Vasquez has walked 26 batters in 49 innings of work, posting a 1.43 WHIP overall. The Padres' right-hander has led them to a 5-5 record in his 10 outings, but his expected ERA is in just the 10th percentile in MLB (5.57), according to Statcast.

San Diego is also enduring a cold stretch at the moment, losing seven of its last 10 games. 

As for Weathers, he’s given up just seven hits and two runs in two starts, throwing five innings in each of them. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him outduel Vasquez in the early going, especially since the Padres' offense is 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS over the last 15 days of action. 

Pick: Marlins First 5 Innings (+100 at DraftKings)

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