Marlins vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 27

The Marlins are underdogs in Game 2 of this early-week series.

Miami Marlins pitcher Max Meyer is a solid prop target on Tuesday. / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres have been struggling as of late, losing seven of their last 10 games, but they picked up a win over the Miami Marlins in their series opener on Memorial Day.

Now, the Padres are favored at home on Tuesday night with Stephen Kolek on the mound for his fifth start of the 2025 season. 

He’ll take on Marlins righty Max Meyer, who has shown some flashes that he could be an elite strikeout pitcher someday in this league.

The Marlins and Padres are two of the best teams on the run line in MLB, but is there some value in taking the underdog on Tuesday night?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Game 2 of this early-week series. 

Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Marlins +1.5 (-148)
• Padres -1.5 (+124)

Moneyline

• Marlins: +142
• Padres: -170

Total

• 8 (Over +100/Under -120)

Marlins vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Miami: Max Meyer (3-4, 4.15 ERA)
• San Diego: Stephen Kolek (2-1. 2.84 ERA)

Marlins vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, May 27 
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SDPA, FDSFL
• Marlins record: 21-31
• Padres record: 30-22

Marlins vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Max Meyer OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Even though the Padres are averaging just over seven strikeouts per game this season, I’m willing to take a shot on Meyer in this market.

The young righty ranks in the 77th percentile in whiff percentage and 75th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, punching out five or more batters in seven of his 10 starts. Overall, Meyer has struck out 63 batters in 56.1 innings of work.

Since the righty is averaging more than a strikeout per inning, I don’t mind him in this market with his prop all the way down at 4.5. Meyer has pitched at least six innings in six of his 10 outings in 2025. 

Marlins vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s Best MLB Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Marlins can cover on Tuesday night: 

The Miami Marlins are in last place in the NL East, but they’ve won five of their last 10 games heading into Tuesday’s clash with the San Diego Padres.

The Padres are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, and they rank 29th in batting average and 28th in OPS over the last 15 days of MLB action. The Marlins are much better on the offensive side right now, ranking eighth in batting average and 13th in OPS over that stretch.

I’m buying Miami on Tuesday night to keep this close, especially since the Marlins are an impressive 28-24 on the run line in the 2025 season.

Max Meyer (4.15 ERA) has been solid for the Marlins this season, ranking in the 77th percentile in whiff percentage and 75th percentile in strikeout percentage. While his ERA isn’t great in 2025, Meyer does have a lower FIP, a sign that he could be due for some positive regression in the future. 

Meanwhile, Padres starter Stephen Kolek has gotten knocked around in his last two starts, allowing nine runs (eight earned) and 15 hits across 11.0 innings of work. 

He ranks in the second percentile in average exit velocity against and the sixth percentile in hard hit percentage this season. I wouldn't be shocked if the Marlins offense is able to score a few runs off of him, and I can’t trust this struggling Padres offense to run away with this one.

Miami is live for the upset – and should be in the mix to cover – on Tuesday. 

Pick: Marlins -1.5 (-148 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.