Massive $200K Wager on Bills vs. Chiefs Total Moves Latest Odds

Early on Sunday, the total in the AFC championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills rose a point from 47.5 to 48.5 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Now, we know why.

According to BetMGM's John Ewing, a bettor wagered $200,000 on the OVER in the game pushing the total up a point. This is in line with what SI Betting's Iain MacMillan wrote earlier today, stating that it was likely that sharp money was driving up the total.

A bettor at @BetMGM wagered $200,000 on Chiefs-Bills OVER 47.5.

Total has moved to 48.5 📈 pic.twitter.com/Z550pF93sz
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 26, 2025

The Chiefs and Bills played earlier this season with Buffalo winning 30-21 -- a combined score that would have cleared this total. In the Bills' three playoff meetings with the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era, these teams have combined for 62, 78, and 51 points.

Could we see another high-scoring game on Sunday?

Earlier today, MacMillan shared why he thinks the OVER is the play in the AFC title game:

Considering my main reason for backing the Chiefs is a lack of faith in the Bills' defense, I'm going to lean toward the OVER cashing in this game as well. When we see Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes face off in the playoffs it seems to be a high-scoring game more often than not as both quarterbacks try to drag their teams to the Super Bowl.

Both offenses enter today's game ranking inside the top 10 in both EPA per play and success rate. Most notably, the Bills are the second-best offense in terms of EPA per play, behind only the Ravens, who they eliminated last week.

The Chiefs remain 1.5-point favorites in this matchup ahead of the 6:30 p.m. EST kickoff between the two top seeds in the AFC.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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