Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet AFC and NFC Championship Games on Sunday)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 26, 2025

The Commanders and Bills are set as underdogs on Championship Sunday. / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

The entire NFL season has led to Championship Sunday and there's no shortage of storylines.

Will the Chiefs pull off the first ever three-peat? Will the Bills finally get over the hump and return to the Super Bowl? Will the Eagles take one step closer to avenging their Super Bowl 57 loss? Will Jayden Daniels become the first rookie quarterback to lead his team to a Super Bowl berth?

We're all going to be glued to our seats watching today's highly-anticipated games, so we might as well place a few bets. In this article, I'm going to break down my pick on the side and total in both games.

NFL Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Commanders +6.5 (-120) vs. Eagles
• Commanders/Eagles OVER 47.5 (-102)
• Chiefs -1.5 (-114) vs. Bills
• Bills/Chiefs OVER 48.5 (-115)

Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction

I simply can't look past Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense. Daniels has been the best rookie quarterback in the history of the sport and may now be the best quarterback in the NFC. His ability to use his legs to his advantage while also remaining calm in the pocket is something I rarely see from a player at his position.

The Commanders also seem to have the Chiefs-esque factor of having things go their way in big moments and never shooting themselves in the foot, something the Eagles have done continuously this season including last week against the Rams.

The Commanders may not win this game. Their defensive issues may prove too much to pull off another upset. With that being said, I can't envision this being a blowout in favor of Philadelphia. I'll take the points with the 'dog.

Pick: Commanders +6.5 (-120)

Commanders vs. Eagles Total Bet

The Eagles and Commanders have been two of the best offenses in the NFL this season, which leads me to believe this has all the makings of an offensive shootout. They enter today's NFC Championship ranking fourth and sixth in EPA per play. The Commanders have also done a great job of turning red zone trips to touchdowns, ranking sixth in red zone offense.

Meanwhile, the Commanders' defense has had plenty of issues at times this season, ranking 22nd in opponent EPA per play. That should lead the Eagles offense to be able to put up points and go blow for blow with the Commanders.

Pick: OVER 47.5 (-102)

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction

I have been saying all season the Chiefs haven't been as good as their record and calling them "frauds," but it's time to wave the white flag. I was wrong. Sometimes, you need to look past some of the numbers and while one side may have better metrics in certain areas, the Chiefs find ways to win big games time and time again. Remember, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is insanity. I will no longer be doing that, it's time to join the dark side.

Not only that, but I have zero faith in the Bills' defense. I bet against them last week due to how bad their defensive numbers are, but they were saved by the Ravens coughing up the ball three teams and the Bills were still a dropped two-point conversion away from having the game tied late despite sporting a +3 turnover differential.

The Buffalo defense has been one of the worst in the NFL in the second half of the season, including ranking 22nd in opponent success rate and 24th in opponent dropback EPA since Week 10. The Chiefs will hand the Bills yet another postseason loss.

Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-114)

Bills vs. Chiefs Total Bet

Considering my main reason for backing the Chiefs is a lack of faith in the Bills defense, I'm going to lean toward the OVER cashing in this game as well. When we see Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes face off in the playoffs it seems to be a high-scoring game more often than not as both quarterbacks try to drag their teams to the Super Bowl.

Both offenses enter today's game ranking inside the top 10 in both EPA per play and success rate. Most notably, the Bills are the second best offense in terms of EPA per play, behind only the Ravens, who they eliminated last week.

Let's bet on plenty of points being put up in tonight's marquee matchup.

Pick: OVER 48.5 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!