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Masters Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting on Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy
The azaleas are popping and so are the betslips. It’s officially Masters week!
The SI Golf betting panel has had a strong performance so far, hitting two outrights and four first-round leader picks in nine events this season. Now we turn our sights to Augusta, where we have betting picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction.
Our panel includes SI golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra.
Williams and Kirschner have the hot hand and are up over 127 units and 24 units, respectively, thanks to a few outrights and FRL hits. Giuffra leads the prop bet picks and is up over 9 units in that market. Vincenzi has nailed multiple outrights for SI Golf, but hasn’t put them in the panel yet, so they don’t count for his record here. The rest of the team is still looking for a big win.
There’s no better time for that than the Masters. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at +400 odds at FanDuel, but no one is backing him on this panel. Instead, we’re focused on a few players farther down the oddsboard, all of whom would be first-time Masters champions.
Let’s get into the picks with breakdowns on each below the graphic. Let’s have a profitable week!
Outright Pick
Iain MacMillan: Shane Lowry (+4500, DraftKings)
Shane Lowry checks every single box imaginable to win the Masters. He’s one of seven golfers that falls in that magic number of gaining at least +1.7 strokes from tee-to-green over the past three months, something 10 of the last 12 winners have done. He’s also had a solid history at the Masters, highlighted by a T3 finish in 2022, and comes into this event in great form, finishing inside the top 20 in four straight starts.
Matt Vincenzi: Joaquin Niemann (+4000, DraftKings)
Since the start of 2024, Niemann has six worldwide wins, which is the most of any player in the world with the exception of Scottie Scheffler. While the lack of major success has been part of the story throughout the early part of his career, the 26-year-old is far too talented to not flip the script in the immediate future.
John Schwarb: Collin Morikawa (+1800, DraftKings)
Morikawa’s win drought simply can’t continue much longer with how well he’s hitting the ball, and I’m willing to take my chances with the Tour leader in strokes-gained approach who also has finishes of T3, T10 and fifth in his last three Masters.
Brian Kirschner: Justin Thomas (+2500, DraftKings)
I truly believe people think JT is the player that he was in 2023 and that is absolutely not the case right now. The data shows he's a top-5 golfer on the PGA Tour over the past couple of months. Three runner-up finishes at Zozo, Amex and Valspar and throw in back-to-back top 10s at Genesis and WMPO and he has consistently put himself in the mix at all types of courses. JT fits the trend of a top 10 in a major in the past year and solid history at the Masters with a T8 and T4 in 2020 and 2022, respectively. JT will be in the mix this week and I foresee a green jacket in the future.
Cody Williams: Rory McIlroy (+650, FanDuel)
Just go ahead and make me feel the pain already. That’s what betting Rory McIlroy at the Masters always leads to, but I strangely feel more at peace with it this year than I ever have before. He’s playing the most balanced version of golf we’ve ever seen. Justin Ray noted that in 2014 at Rory’s peak, 60% of his strokes gained overall came off the tee. That’s still his greatest weapon, but this season, only 37% of his strokes gained are coming there. When you factor in an obvious change in demeanor, I’m preparing for an epic Sunday narrative to unfold.
Brian Giuffra: Shane Lowry (+4500, DraftKings)
I’ve been bullish on Lowry all season. While it hasn’t resulted in a win yet, he’s got a runner-up, two other top 10s and a T11. He’s fifth on tour in total shots gained and sixth in strokes-gained approach. With a T3 at this tournament in 2022, plus two top-10 finishes in the majors last year, I think Lowry sets up well for a strong start this week, which is critical to competing at Augusta. Whether he can get a second major remains the question. But we know he’s never afraid of the moment.
Longshot
Iain MacMillan: Brian Harman (+11000, FanDuel)
I’m going to roll with last week’s winner, Brian Harman. He’s the type of guy that will get hot for a four-week stretch once a year and you have to capitalize on it before he turns into a pumpkin. Last week’s win may have been the start of another hot run. His short game finally snapped back into form and his approach play has been a strength the past three months. As a cherry on top, the fact he’s a lefty may give him a very slight edge at a course that demands a right-to-left ball flight.
Matt Vincenzi: Sergio Garcia (+8000, FanDuel)
Last month, the Spaniard won LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that has produced a great deal of Masters winners, including Gary Player, Ian Woosnam, Bernhard Langer and José María Olazábal. Garcia has been an elite ball striker this year on LIV and has combined the tee-to-green excellence with a much improved putting season. He is still one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet and is hitting the ball as long and as straight as he did in the prime of his career.
John Schwarb: Sepp Straka (+8000, FanDuel)
The Austrian has steadily marched up the world rankings, from 36th at the start of the season to 13th. He’s fifth in strokes-gained approach and three-for-three in Masters cuts with a best finish of T16 last year. At this price, I’m more than willing to take a shot that he might be around late Sunday to contend and hear “Go Dawgs!” from the patrons.
Brian Kirschner: Cameron Smith (+6600, BetRivers)
This is a pure course history play with the Australian this week. Although his form on LIV Golf has not been exceptional, he truly is one of the best golfers at Augusta over the past couple of years. A sixth, 34th, third, 10th and second in his last five appearances at the Masters is no easy feat. He is not the same golfer he was when he played in the final group in 2022, but I believe this place brings out something special in him. With some of the most predictive course history, I think that 66/1 is too good of a number to pass up on Cam coming off a T9 at LIV Miami
Cody Williams: Sergio Garcia (+8000, FanDuel)
You don’t have to like Sergio Garcia to understand that he’s very much alive this week as a past champion. Beyond his win at LIV Hong Kong earlier this year, he also has just one finish on LIV and the Asian Tour outside the Top 20 in six starts, which includes finishing solo third at Doral. On top of that, he ranks inside the top 5 on LIV in greens in regulation, scrambling and fairways hit. Tee-to-green, that’ll play. Though his recent history at Augusta leaves a lot to be desired, the form is too strong to dismiss.
Brian Giuffra: Jason Day (+8000, FanDuel)
I started thinking about Day here after his T8 at the API but became slightly concerned after he withdrew from The Players Championship. The good news is he returned to play in the Houston Open, where he was T28. His short game and putting have been suburb all season, which should play well at a course where he has some strong history (four top 10s). I get the feeling he’s going to be a contender heading into the weekend.
First-Round Leader
Iain MacMillan: Patrick Reed (+6500, FanDuel)
I don’t think Patrick Reed has the firepower to win the Masters for the second time, but his short game is always going to have him in the mix and he consistently shows up at Augusta. He has finished T12 or better in four of the past five years. He’s also fresh off a T7 at LIV Miami.
Matt Vincenzi: Justin Rose (+8000, FanDuel)
Justin Rose shows up for big events. Last year, he finished T6 at the PGA Championship and T2 at the British Open. He’s playing pretty well to start the season and absolutely loves Augusta National.
John Schwarb: Phil Mickelson (+6000, FanDuel)
The three-time champion was a most improbable T2 at the 2023 Masters after coming in with no form whatsoever. This time he’s arriving off a sixth-place finish at LIV Miami. I’ll take my chances on Lefty for one round.
Brian Kirschner: Bryson DeChambeau (+3000, DraftKings)
Can lightning strike twice with Bryson in the first round at Augusta? I think yes. Bryson was solo FRL at the 2024 Masters and also held a share back in 2019. We have seen over the years that certain golfers get out to a fast start at Augusta. Justin Rose and Charley Hoffman come to mind. I think Bryson can be one of those guys.
Cody Williams: Max Homa (+11000, FanDuel)
There is no statistical reason to like Max Homa this week as he comes into this tournament having lost strokes on approach and overall in seven straight tournaments and coming off of five straight missed cuts. Throughout his struggles, though, Homa has maintained that his swing and game feel good or close. Returning to a spot where he finished T3 to put himself in a major conversation for the first time, we could see a momentary return to form. I don’t think his game is anywhere right enough to contend, but to put together a low first-round? It’s not out of the question.
Brian Giuffra: Jordan Spieth (+4000, FanDuel)
This market is critically important to forecasting an overall winner at The Masters, perhaps more so than any other tournament each year. While being the leader after Round 1 doesn’t guarantee a win, being among the top 3 has the last five years, a fact I wrote about earlier this week. That means we need to roll with someone we think can win and Spieth seems primed to do just that. Spieth’s approach game was fantastic as last week’s Valero Texas Open and I think he carries that momentum into a hot start at Augusta.
Prop Bet
Iain MacMillan: Justin Hastings Top Amateur (+220, FanDuel)
Justin Hastings is having a strong season at San Diego State, where he's on the verge of breaking numerous school records that were previously set by Xander Schauffele. He’s finished T8 in T2 in his two most recent events this year and he enters the Masters as the Latin America Amateur Champion. He’s a name we’re going to see in the coming years and I think he takes home the Low Am award.
Matt Vincenzi: Sergio Garcia Top 20 (+170, DraftKings)
As explained above, Garcia is hitting the ball as well as he has in a decade. His floor feels extremely high this week.
John Schwarb: Hideki Matsuyama to Miss the Cut (+330, FanDuel)
Every year at the Masters, some surprising stars go home early and I like to take a chance on one or two. Matsuyama, of course, won in 2021 but has had progressively worse results since, including a T38 last year. He’s coming in off missed cuts at the Players and the Valero.
Brian Kirschner: Taylor Pendrith Top 30 (+160, DraftKings)
Although arriving to Augusta for the first time, I truly believe Pendy has the skillset and the current course conditions set up great for him. Plus money for a top 30 in a small field is a bet I will make every day of the week. Coming off a fifth-place finish at The Houston Open, which is a great comp course, Taylor had a great week of ball striking and putting. The weather this year is going to lend itself to longer hitters and the Canadian has plenty of distance, ranking 4th in SG: OTT in this field.
Cody Williams: Patrick Reed Top 20 (+180, DraftKings)
So, you’re telling me I get +180 on Patrick Reed to do something at the Masters that he’s done in four of his last five trips here? You’re also telling me that Reed comes in after gaining on approach in his last three measured events and off of a runner-up finish on the Asian Tour and a T7 at LIV Miami? This is a place where Reed has long felt comfortable beyond just being a past champion, and I like the form enough to just rinse and repeat with a Top 20 play.
Brian Giuffra: Shane Lowry Top UK&Ireland (+650, FanDuel)
If I’m betting him outright, you know I gotta back Lowry to beat his fellow island natives. Rory Mcilroy (+130) and Tommy Fleetwood (+600) are ahead of Lowry in this market. Tyrrell Hatton (+750), Robert MacIntyre (+900) and Justin Rose (+1600) lurk. It’s a competitive market, but I’m riding the Lowry ship this week, whichever way it goes.
Winning Score
- Iain MacMillan: -10
- Matt Vincenzi: -13
- John Schwarb: -11
- Brian Kirschner: -14
- Cody Williams: -10
- Brian Giuffra: -12
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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